Daily Review of Urea: Factory quotations are stable and declining, and the market has a correction (August 22)

China Urea Price Index:

According to Feiduo data, the urea small pellet price index on August 22 was 2,522.09, up 2.95 from yesterday, up 0.12% month-on-month, and up 5.92% year-on-year.

Urea futures market:

The opening price of the Urea UR2401 contract: 2149, the highest price: 2150, the lowest price: 2102, the settlement price: 2120, the closing price fell by 12 compared with the settlement price of the previous trading day, down 0.56% month-on-month. The daily fluctuation range is 2102-2150, and the spread is 48; The 01 contract has reduced its position by 12626 lots today, and has held 331220 lots so far.

Spot market analysis:

Today, China's urea market price fluctuated within a narrow range. Affected by the rising price of the printed label in the past few days, the urea market price continued to rise and the price has reached a high level. Recently, the market trend has begun to show a slight correction.

Specifically, prices in Northeast China have stabilized at 2,240 - 2,460 yuan/ton. Prices in North China have stabilized at 2,350 - 2,600 yuan/ton. Prices in the northwest region are stable at 2,590 - 2,600 yuan/ton. Prices in Southwest China rose to 2,400 - 2,800 yuan/ton. Prices in East China rose to 2,510 - 2,580 yuan/ton. The price of small and medium-sized particles in Central China has stabilized at 2,450 - 2,680 yuan/ton, and the price of large particles has stabilized at 2,480 - 2,550 yuan/ton. Prices in South China have stabilized at 2,600 - 2,680 yuan/ton.

Market outlook forecast:

In terms of enterprises, the current operating rate of the industry is still at a low level, daily output and inventories are at a low level, factory equipment is overhauled, market supply is insufficient, and supply is still good. In terms of demand, downstream compound fertilizers have entered the peak season of autumn fertilizer production, and there is currently certain market demand to follow up. However, in terms of printing and labeling, India's bidding and quotation have ended, procurement has temporarily come to an end, and exporters 'replenishment may still affect the market. The purchasing trend of compound fertilizers needs close attention.

On the whole, there are no good signs in the market at present, and the price of urea in China has begun to gradually weaken. However, positive supply and demand still exist. It is expected that the urea market will mainly fluctuate slightly in the short term.