Methanol: Futures market volatility is strong and spot market is mixed

On August 21, the methanol market price index was 2241.45, up 6.93 from the previous working day and 0.31% higher than the previous working day.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on August 18:

China CFR 266USD-275USD / t, Ping

European FOB 231.75-233.75 euros / ton, up 1.25 euros / ton

Us FOB 69-71 cents per gallon, up 4 cents per gallon

Southeast Asia CFR 281.25-283.25 US dollars / ton, up 3.25 US dollars / ton.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2150-2160 (0), South: 2050-2060 (0), North: 2070-2100 (40), Lunan: 2400 (20), Henan: & nbsp;2310-2320 (- 5), Shanxi: 2190-2270 (- 10), Port: 2385-2435 (5)

Freight:

North Route-Northern Shandong 220-310 (- 20 Uniqure 10), Southern Route-Northern Shandong 260-320 (10max 10), Shanxi-Northern Shandong 110-180 (0max 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 200-260 (0max 0)

Spot market: today, methanol market is arranged in a narrow range, and the spot quotation fluctuates by 5-50. Yuan / ton, futures market volatility is strong, port spot basis is weak, buying gas is general, the supply margin of the Chinese market does not change much, there is some favorable support on the demand side, the mentality of some operators is strong, and the overall transaction situation is OK. Specifically, the market price in the main producing areas has been partially raised. Today, the price of the southern route is 2050-2060 yuan / ton, the low end is stable, the northern line is 2070-2100 yuan / ton, and the low end is 40 yuan / ton. among them, Shaanxi Changqing methanol price this week: 2000 tons quoted 2200 yuan / ton, more than 2000 tons less than 2210 yuan / ton, the plant 600000 tons methanol plant stable operation, the current field supply increment is limited, most enterprise inventory is still on the low side. There is a certain support for the price, but the enthusiasm of receiving goods downstream is general, mainly purchasing on demand, and we need to pay attention to the operation of the equipment in the field in the later stage. The consumer market rose, with 2400 yuan / ton in southern Shandong, 20 yuan / ton in the low end, 2350-2360 yuan / ton in northern Shandong, and 30 yuan / ton in the low end. At present, the market is cautious and the industry has a strong mentality. Prices in North China are stable and small, including 2190-2270 yuan / ton in Shanxi, 10 yuan / ton in the low end, and 2300-2350 yuan / ton in Hebei. Downstream and traders are cautious in receiving goods and wait and see at the beginning of the week. Prices in southwest China remain stable, of which Yungui quotes 2220-2300 yuan / ton, Sichuan and Chongqing quote 2230-2280 yuan / ton, the low end is stable, the current market negotiations are mediocre, the downstream rigid demand is buying, and the operators have a strong wait-and-see mood. Quotations in other regions of China have also been adjusted to varying degrees.

Port market: methanol futures rose strongly. Unilateral high shipments are active, buying arbitrage, within the month the basis is weak, the long-term stability, the August / September gap widened, the September / October gap narrowed. The overall transaction is active throughout the day. Taicang main port transaction price: spot / 8: 2385-2435, base difference 09pm / 8: 2385-2435, base difference 09pm / 8: 2385-2435, base difference 09pm / 8pm: 2385-2435, base difference 09pm / 8: 2385-10pm, base difference 09pm / 20pm / 25x, transaction price: 2410-2470, base difference 09pm 35pm 01-40bp 30bp 10: 10 transaction: 2490-2495, base difference 01-10pm 5.

Future forecast: the recent macro support is unstable, the coal price is narrowly reduced, the cost support is weakened, methanol profits have improved, but the market changes more frequently, traders and downstream cautious sentiment gradually rises, with the gradual recovery of the previous maintenance equipment, the operating rate of methanol enterprises has increased steadily, the spot tension has been alleviated, and the overall supply in the Chinese market has increased in a narrow range, but enterprise inventory is still on the low side. There is a certain support for the market price, and in terms of demand, the traditional downstream start-up continues to be mainly rising, Gansu Huating olefin plant is put into operation, Sheng Hong olefin plant is running at full load after restart, and the start-up of the olefin industry has also increased. However, the raw material inventory of downstream enterprises is on the high side, Lihuayi and Dongfang Hualong methanol stop external production, the actual downstream delivery volume is limited, and the market demand has not increased substantially for the time being. In the later stage, it is necessary to pay attention to the commissioning of Baofeng Phase III MTO plant. At present, the support on the cost side is limited, and the supply and demand are both in the increasing stage, but the support strength on the demand side may be greater than that on the supply side, the fundamentals are good expectations, the market mentality is supported, and the price fluctuation in the methanol market is expected to rise in the short term. in the later stage, we need to pay close attention to the macro view, coal prices and the operation of the plant in the field.