Methanol: Strong futures market pulled up spot prices rose with the market

On August 18, the methanol market price index of 2234.52 was 18.46 higher than that of yesterday, up 0.83% from the previous month.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on August 17:

China CFR 266-271USD / ton, up US $3 / tonne

European FOB 230.5-232.5 euros / ton, up 4 euros / ton

Us FOB 65-67 cents per gallon, up 1 cent per gallon

Southeast Asia CFR 278-280 US dollars / ton, down 1 US dollars / ton.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2150-2160 (0), South: 2050-2060 (0), North: 2030-2050 (30), Lunan: 2380 (- 20), Henan: & nbsp;2315-2330 (75), Shanxi: 2200-2230 (0), Port: 2 380-2 395 (50)

Freight:

North Route-North Shandong 240-320 (10ax 0), South Line-North Shandong 250-310 (10ax 0), Shanxi-North Shandong 130-200 (0ax 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 200-260 (0max 0)

Spot market: today, the methanol market is running strongly, and the futures market has rebounded sharply. The price in the Chinese market has risen with the market, and the spot quotation has been raised by 20-90%. Yuan / ton, at present, the fundamental fluctuation of supply and demand in the field is not big for the time being, downstream enterprises still maintain rigid demand for receiving goods, and the transaction situation in some areas is OK. Specifically, the market prices in the main producing areas have been partially raised. Today, the southern line quotes 2050-2060 yuan / ton, the low end is stable, the northern line quotes 2030-2050 yuan / ton, and the low end increases 30 yuan / ton. at present, some enterprises in the field have accumulated inventory, but they are still running mainly on the low side. downstream is more resistant to the high-priced supply of goods, the enthusiasm of receiving goods is general, and more on-demand procurement is given priority to, and the later stage should also pay attention to the operation of the equipment in the field. The consumer market is mixed, including 2380 yuan / ton in southern Shandong, 20 yuan / ton in the low end, and 2320-2340 yuan / ton in northern Shandong, which is stable at the low end. at present, the market is cautious and the industry has a strong mentality. Up to now, the bidding price in today's market is around 2330-2350 yuan / ton, including 2350 yuan / ton for methanol from Jincheng Petrochemical Company and 2330 yuan / ton for Shenchi Chemical Industry. Prices in North China remain stable, including 2200-2230 yuan / ton in Shanxi and 2300-2350 yuan / ton in Hebei. The lower end is stable, the downstream and traders are cautious in receiving goods, and the transaction atmosphere is general. Prices in southwest China remain stable, including 2220-2300 yuan / ton for Yungui and 2230-2280 yuan / ton for Sichuan and Chongqing. The low end is stable. At present, the market talks are flat, and the downstream rigid demand is purchased. Quotations in other regions of China have also been adjusted to varying degrees.

Port market: methanol futures are high and volatile today. Spot rigid demand negotiations, paper orders to meet high shipments positive, arbitrage buying mainly, multi-contract negotiations, the basis is slightly weaker. The price difference between months widened. The overall transaction is active throughout the day. Taicang main port transaction price: spot transaction: 2395, basis 09: 10 picture15: 8 transaction: 2385-2400, base difference 09: 10 picture15: 2400, base difference 09: 25: 9 transaction: 2405-2420, base difference: 09: 45, 01-38: 3510, basis: 2445-2455, base difference 01-5bot 3.

Future forecast: supply side: recent plant maintenance and restart in the field, failure of methanol plant in Kunpeng, Ningxia, new equipment maintenance in Yankuang Guohong and Yunnan Jiehua, at the same time, some early maintenance devices restart and resume production as scheduled, such as Shenmu, Baotou Steel, Aowei Qianyuan, Xinhang, etc., Yanzhou Mining Guohong and Shenglong Chemical Industry plans to resume next week, the overall supply of the Chinese market is still abundant, and enterprise inventory has increased. However, it is still on the low side, and the price-raising sentiment of some manufacturers still exists. From the demand point of view: at present, the profits of some products downstream of the terminal have risen, dimethyl ether and glacial acetic acid have risen significantly, the start-up of the downstream market is rising steadily, and the overall demand is stable and good, but the inventory of raw materials in downstream enterprises is on the high side, which is still dominated by on-demand procurement, and the mood of receiving goods is general, and Shandong Lihuayi MTBE plant plans to stop on the 19th this weekend, the bidding will be suspended during the week, and the procurement volume in some areas will be reduced. Gansu Huating olefin plant is put into operation, and the product is planned to be produced in the near future. Sheng Hong olefin plant has been restarted as scheduled, but the long term in China has not been implemented for the time being, and the market demand has not increased substantially. In the later stage, we should pay attention to the commissioning of Baofeng Phase III MTO plant. At present, the cost-end support is weak, the supply margin changes little, while the demand expectation is good, the macro mood needs to be tracked, the industry in the market has a strong wait-and-see mood, the overall enthusiasm to enter the market is not high, and the short-term methanol market price range is expected to fluctuate. in the later stage, we also need to pay close attention to the macro view, coal prices and the operation of the plant in the field.