Methanol: China and ports diverge, the market transaction atmosphere is mixed

On August 17, the methanol market price index 2216.06 was 12.29 lower than yesterday, or 0.55% lower than yesterday.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on August 16:

China's CFR ranges from US $263 to US $268 per ton, down US $5 per ton

European FOB 226.5-228.5 euros / ton, up 6.50 euros / ton

Us FOB-66 cents per gallon, down 2 cents per gallon

Southeast Asian CFR 279-281 US dollars / ton, down 2.50 US dollars / ton.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2150-2160 (0), South: 2050-2060 (0), North: 2000-2030 (- 20), Lunan: 2400 (- 30), Henan: & nbsp;2240-2290 (- 30), Shanxi: 2200-2230 (- 20), Port: 2330-2345 (10)

Freight:

Northern route-230-320 (- 10amp 0), southern route-northern Shandong 240-310 (0max 0), Shanxi-northern Shandong 130-200 (0max 0), Guanzhong-southwest Shandong 200-260 (0amp 10)

Spot market: today, the price of methanol market is weak, the spot price fluctuates 10-70 yuan / ton, the futures market fluctuates and rebounds, the replenishment atmosphere at the spot end of the port is general, and the supply in the Chinese market is basically cashed in, but the demand has not increased substantially for the time being. the transfer order price in some areas has weakened, and the transaction atmosphere has improved, but the transaction situation in the northwest region is not good, and all the enterprises failed to auction after the auction. Today, the southern line quotes 2050-2060 yuan / ton, the low end is stable, the northern line quotes 2000-2030 yuan / ton, and the low end is reduced by 20 yuan / ton. at present, the inventory of some enterprises in the field has increased, the market mentality is weak, and the enthusiasm of downstream and traders is general. Some enterprises in some areas have lowered their quotations for shipment, and the transaction situation is still general. In the later stage, we need to pay attention to the operation of the equipment in the field. Consumer market prices fell, including 2400 yuan / ton in southern Shandong, 30 yuan / ton in the low end, 2320-2340 yuan / ton in northern Shandong, and 40 yuan / ton in the low end. At present, the market trading is cautious and the mentality of operators is general. Prices in North China have been partially reduced, including 2200-2230 yuan / ton in Shanxi, 20 yuan / ton in the low end, and 2300-2350 yuan / ton in Hebei, which is stable at the low end, the downstream and traders are cautious in receiving goods, and the transaction atmosphere is general. Prices in southwest China remain stable, including 2220-2300 yuan / ton for Yungui and 2230-2280 yuan / ton for Sichuan and Chongqing, with a stable low end. at present, the market negotiation mood is general, and the downstream rigid demand is purchased. Quotations in other regions of China have also been adjusted to varying degrees.

Port market: today, methanol futures are slightly more volatile. Spot rigid demand negotiations, paper arbitrage and exchange quotations, the monthly basis is slightly weak, the long-term basis is strong. The overall transaction throughout the day is not bad. Taicang main port transaction price: today transaction: 2330-2345, base difference 09: 15, base difference: 2325-2345, basis difference: 09: 20, margin 22: 9, basis difference: 2345-2350, basis difference: 09: 30, transaction price: 2345-2350, basis difference: 09: 30 : 2335-2360, base difference 09-38 pound 40-01-15 CPN 10-10 deal: 2360-2375, basis 01-5 pm 0.

Future forecast: the recent poor performance of macro mood, affected by the pullback of futures, the market sentiment has weakened, the situation of failed auctions in different regions has gradually emerged, and the transaction atmosphere in some areas is different. at present, some early parking devices in Northwest China have resumed normal operation one after another, coupled with the recovery of transport capacity, the spot supply in the field has gradually increased, but due to the overall shipment situation in the early stage, the inventory pressure of most factories is not great. Under the support of the low and middle level of inventory, the manufacturers' price-raising mentality still exists. From the demand point of view: at present, the construction of the terminal downstream market is steadily increasing, but the overall transaction volume is limited, and the Shandong Lihuayi MTBE plant plans to stop on the 19th this weekend, the bidding will be suspended during the week, and the procurement volume in some areas will be reduced. Gansu Huating olefin plant is put into operation, and the product is planned to be produced in the near future. Sheng Hong olefin plant has been restarted as scheduled, but the long term in China has not been implemented for the time being, and the market demand has not increased substantially. In the later stage, we should pay attention to the commissioning of Baofeng Phase III MTO plant. At present, the macro and cost side support is weak, the supply side increment is expected to remain, and the demand side is stable and good as a whole, but at present, the downstream demand has not improved significantly, the industry in the market has a strong wait-and-see mood, and the overall enthusiasm for entering the market is not high. It is expected that the price range of the short-term methanol market will fluctuate, and in the later stage, we need to pay close attention to the macro view, coal prices and the operation of the plant in the field.