Daily review of urea: Demand increases and prices continue to run at high levels (August 17)

China Urea Price Index:

According to Feiduo data, the urea small pellet price index on August 17 was 2,546.86, up 10.91 from yesterday, up 0.43% month-on-month, and up 5.22% year-on-year.

Urea futures market:

The opening price of the Urea UR2401 contract: 2098, the highest price: 2139, the lowest price: 2067, the settlement price: 2100, the closing price: 2121. The closing price fell 11 compared with the settlement price of the previous trading day, and the month-on-month fell 0.52%. The daily fluctuation range is 2067-2139, and the spread is 72; The 01 contract has reduced its position by 8529 lots today, and has held 327071 lots so far.

Spot market analysis:

Today, China's urea market prices continue to increase. According to news, China's supply may reach 1.1 million tons. The increase in the number of printed labels has delayed the supply pressure of companies. Chinese market prices have also gained new support points. Companies increase their prices.

Specifically, prices in Northeast China have stabilized at 2,240 - 2,460 yuan/ton. Prices in North China rose to 2,380 - 2,640 yuan/ton. Prices in the northwest region rose to 2,590 - 2,600 yuan/ton. Prices in Southwest China are stable at 2,400 - 2,700 yuan/ton. Prices in East China rose to 2,550 - 2,620 yuan/ton. The price of small and medium-sized particles in Central China has risen to 2,500 - 2,680 yuan/ton, and the price of large particles has stabilized at 2,560 - 2,600 yuan/ton. Prices in South China rose to 2,660 - 2,750 yuan/ton.

Market outlook forecast:

In terms of enterprises, urea companies currently have a large number of advance orders, and some new export orders are still completed. Port collection orders are also in the process of being shipped, but domestic trade transactions are relatively flat. In addition, due to the increase in equipment failures in some enterprises, urea operating rates and daily output have been slightly reduced. The market supply is tight, and companies are obviously willing to hold prices. In terms of the urea market, India is an important exporter of China's urea. For the current off-season market in China, the appearance of this stamp will greatly affect the price changes in the Chinese urea market, and the market reaction will also change with the stamp.

On the whole, the current market changes are supported by positive signs, and China's urea market prices are expected to rise but not fall in the short term.