Methanol: Futures market continues to fall, China's market atmosphere is poor

On August 16, the methanol market price index 2228.35 was 10.94 lower than that of yesterday, or 0.49% lower than yesterday.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on August 15:

China CFR 268-270USD / ton, up US $1 / tonne

European FOB 220,222euros / ton, flat

Us FOB 66-68 cents per gallon, down 1 cent per gallon

CFR in Southeast Asia was 281.5-283.5 US dollars / ton, down 1.50 US dollars / ton.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2150-2160 (0), South: 2050-2060 (0), North: 2020-2110 (- 50), Lunan: 2430 (- 20), Henan: & nbsp;2270-2290 (- 45), Shanxi: 2220-2300 (0), Port: 2320-2340 (- 25)

Freight:

North Route-Northern Shandong 240-320 (- 10 Universe Mueller 10), Southern Route-Northern Shandong 240-310 (- 10 Uniqure 10), Shanxi-Northern Shandong 130-200 (0max 0), Guanzhong-Southwestern Shandong 200-270 (- 20 Compay 20)

Spot market: today, the methanol market fell within a narrow range, and the spot price fluctuated by 10-45. Yuan / ton, the futures market continues to fluctuate, the port basis is strong, the supply of the Chinese market is growing steadily, the demand side is not significantly improved, the market atmosphere is still weak, and the transaction atmosphere is slightly weak in some areas. Specifically, the market prices in the main producing areas are partially downgraded. Today, the southern line quotes 2050-2060 yuan / ton, the low end is stable, the northern line quotes 2020-2110 yuan / ton, and the low end is reduced by 50 yuan / ton. at present, the inventory of some enterprises in the market has increased, and the market mentality is weak. Downstream and traders are generally enthusiastic about receiving goods, some enterprises in local areas lower their quotations for shipment, and the transaction is general, and we need to pay attention to the operation of the equipment in the field in the later stage. Consumer market prices fell partially, including 2430 yuan / ton in southern Shandong, 20 yuan / ton in the low end, 2360-2420 yuan / ton in northern Shandong, and 10 yuan / ton in the low end. The current market trading is cautious, and the mentality of operators is slightly different. Prices in North China remain stable, including 2220-2300 yuan / ton in Shanxi and 2300-2350 yuan / ton in Hebei, with low-end stability, cautious acceptance of goods downstream and traders, and general trading atmosphere in some areas. Prices in southwest China have been partially raised, of which Yungui quotation is 2220-2300 yuan / ton, low-end price is 20 yuan / ton, Sichuan-Chongqing price is 2230-2280 yuan / ton, the low end is stable. At present, the market negotiation mood is general, and the downstream rigid demand is buying. Quotations in other regions of China have also been adjusted to varying degrees.

Port market: methanol futures fell today. Spot exchange and shipment, rigid demand negotiation. Paper delivery is now dominated by arbitrage, unilateral low-price enquiries are active, and the focus of trading falls with futures. The base difference is stronger. Transactions are active throughout the day. Taicang main port transaction price: 8, transaction price: 2325-2350, basis 09: 13, margin 22: 8 transaction: 2320-2345, basis: 09, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10,

Future forecast: from the supply point of view: recently, some early parking devices in Northwest China have resumed normal operation, Shenmu, Changqing, Aowei Ganyuan, Baotou Steel and other devices have been restarted and operated stably, and the favorable support of the supply side in some areas has been weakened. however, due to the overall shipment situation in the early stage is good, the inventory pressure of most factories is not great, and under the support of the middle and low level of inventory, the manufacturers' positive price mentality still exists. From the demand point of view: at present, the construction of the terminal downstream market is steadily increasing, but the overall transaction volume is limited, and the Shandong Lihuayi MTBE plant plans to stop on the 19th this weekend, the bidding will be suspended during the week, and the procurement volume in some areas will be reduced. The Sheng Hong olefin plant has been restarted and operated stably as scheduled, but the long term contract in China has not been restored at present, and the market demand has not increased substantially. In the later stage, we should pay attention to the commissioning of Baofeng Phase III MTO plant. At present, although the market demand downstream of the terminal is expected to be good, there is no obvious volume in the transaction at present, coupled with the continued weakness of the futures market in the near future, the wait-and-see mood of the operators in the market is gradually rising, and the overall enthusiasm of entering the market is not high. It is expected that the price range of the methanol market will fluctuate in the short term, and in the later stage, we need to pay close attention to the macro view, coal prices and the operation of the plant in the field.