Daily review of urea: Prices have been continuously increased and factories have stopped selling (August 16)

China Urea Price Index:

According to Feiduo data, the urea small pellet price index on August 16 was 2,535.95, up 11.14 from yesterday, up 0.44% month-on-month, and up 4.51% year-on-year.

Urea futures market:

The opening price of the Urea UR2401 contract: 2137, the highest price: 2157, the lowest price: 2076, the settlement price: 2132, and the closing price: 2083. The closing price dropped 42 compared with the settlement price of the previous trading day, and the month-on-month decline was 1.98%. The daily fluctuation range was 2076-2157, and the spread was 81; The 01 contract reduced its position by 13134 lots today, and so far, it held 335600 lots.

Spot market analysis:

Today, China's urea market prices still maintain an upward trend. Urea quotations in some mainstream regions have increased significantly. The phenomenon of continuous price increases has once again emerged. Some factories have entered the stage of suspension of sales. Companies are mostly supported by pending orders and exports. The overall price increase is obvious.

Specifically, prices in Northeast China have stabilized at 2,240 - 2,460 yuan/ton. Prices in North China rose to 2,380 - 2,610 yuan/ton. Prices in the northwest region are stable at 2,440 - 2,450 yuan/ton. Prices in Southwest China rose to 2,400 - 2,700 yuan/ton. Prices in East China rose to 2,550 - 2,610 yuan/ton. The price of small and medium-sized particles in Central China rose to 2,540 - 2,670 yuan/ton, and the price of large particles rose to 2,560 - 2,600 yuan/ton. Prices in South China have stabilized at 2,660 - 2,700 yuan/ton.

Market outlook forecast:

On the demand side, China is currently exporting more urea. This time, the good news that China has a large quantity of urea has been reported. The enthusiasm of Chinese companies for production has been boosted, and China's urea prices have been simultaneously increased. Internationally, affected by the number of stamps landed, the market has increased confidence in later price trends. The appearance of stamps in the Chinese market is classified as a good situation, so the market's reaction will change with the changes in stamp news. In terms of futures, UR401 showed a downward trend today. It is expected that this decline will affect the changes in urea market prices in the future.

On the whole, the market will continue to be supported by positive factors for printing and labeling in a short period of time, and there is still room for prices to operate at high levels.