Methanol: The methanol period continues and the weak industry is becoming cautious

On August 15, the methanol market price index was 2239.29, down 4.71 from yesterday, or 0.21% from the previous month.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on August 14:

China's CFR ranges from US $267,273 / ton, down US $3 / ton.

European FOB 220,222 euros / ton, up 4.50 euros / ton

Us FOB 67-69 cents per gallon, flat

Southeast Asian CFR 283-285 US dollars / ton, down 1 US dollars / ton.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2150-2160 (0), South: 2050-2060 (0), North: 2070-2110 (- 10), Lunan: 2450 (0), Henan: & nbsp;2315-2330 (- 5), Shanxi: 2220-2300 (- 20), Port: 2345-2360 (- 10)

Freight:

North Route-North Shandong 250-330 (- 10max 0), South Line-North Shandong 250-320 (0max 0), Shanxi-North Shandong 130-200 (0max 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 220-290 (0max 0)

Spot market: today, the methanol market is weak, the spot quotation fluctuates 5-40 yuan / ton, the futures market fluctuates, the port basis stabilizes, the buying gas is general, the supply and demand of methanol in the Chinese market increases doubly, affected by the decline in the market, the market atmosphere is weak, some enterprises bid for stock and flow auction, and the transaction atmosphere is weak. Specifically, the market prices in the main producing areas are stable and small. Today, the southern line quotes 2050-2060 yuan / ton, the low end is stable, the northern line quotes 2070-2110 yuan / ton, and the low end is reduced by 10 yuan / ton. at present, the market is affected by the decline in the market, and the buying mentality has weakened somewhat. Some enterprises continue to sell goods at a high price, but the transaction is general, and the operators mainly wait and see, and they still need to pay attention to the operation of the equipment in the field in the later stage. Consumer market prices fell, including 2450 yuan / ton in southern Shandong, stable in the low end, 2370-2420 yuan / ton in northern Shandong, and 50 yuan / ton in the lower end. At present, the market trading is cautious, and the mentality of operators is slightly stronger. Up to now, the bidding price in today's market is around 2370-2420 yuan / ton, including 2420 yuan / ton for methanol from Jincheng Petrochemical Company and 2370 yuan / ton for Shenchi Chemical Industry. Prices in North China have been partially reduced, including 2220-2300 yuan / ton in Shanxi, 20 yuan / ton in the low end, and 2300-2350 yuan / ton in Hebei, with firm enterprise offers and wait-and-see operators. Prices in southwest China have been partially raised, of which Yungui quotation is 2200-2300 yuan / ton, low-end price is stable, Sichuan-Chongqing price is 2230-2280 yuan / ton, and the low-end price is 10 yuan / ton. at present, the mood of negotiation in the field is general, the industry has a strong wait-and-see mood, and the rigid demand is mainly for inquiry. Quotations in other regions of China have also been adjusted to varying degrees.

Port market: methanol futures consolidation today. Spot rigid demand negotiations, paper goods part of the unilateral higher than low, expected arbitrage to receive goods, the basis is strong, the atmosphere is slightly deadlocked. The deal is mediocre throughout the day. Taicang main port transaction price: spot order: 2350-2360, basis 09: 10, transaction 8: 2345-2360, basis: 09: 10, transaction: 2340-2365, basis: 09: 7, margin: 10: 9, basis: 2365: 2375, basis: 09: 30.

Forecast in the future: the coal price is temporarily stable in the near future, the cost support is general, spending the summer at the peak is coming to an end, the market is bearish, and the short-term coal price is expected to go down. With the end of the previous maintenance equipment, some of the devices in the field are restarted as scheduled. Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel and Ningxia Kunpeng equipment have been ignited and restarted. At present, the operating rate of enterprises in the Chinese market has increased significantly compared with the previous period. In addition, some units are still planned to resume in mid-late August, and the supply area is expected to increase. In the later stage, we need to pay attention to the operation of the plant in the field. From the demand point of view, with the fading of the high temperature weather, the traditional downstream demand is slowly increasing, and the Silbon MTO plant has been restarted, and qualified products have been produced. China is expected to resume about next month, and the demand is expected to improve steadily. However, the maintenance plan of Lihuayi MTBE plant and Tianjin Bohua MTO plant was stored at the end of August, and the commissioning and maintenance plan of Xingxing and Baofeng phase III MTO plant should be paid attention to in the later stage. At present, the macro mood is poor, the cost support is limited, and both the supply side and demand side of methanol are expected to increase. Under the long-empty game, the attitude of the operators in the market is slightly cautious, and the short-term methanol market price is expected to be arranged in a narrow range. In the later stage, we need to pay close attention to the macro view, coal prices and the operation of the plant in the field.