Daily Review of Urea: Printing and labeling drives export prices to continue to rise (August 15)

China Urea Price Index:

According to Feiduo data, the urea small pellet price index on August 15 was 2,524.82, up 17.27 from yesterday, up 0.69% month-on-month, and up 4.04% year-on-year.

Urea futures market:

The opening price of the Urea UR2401 contract: 2110, the highest price: 2164, the lowest price: 2092, the settlement price: 2125, the closing price is 71 higher than the settlement price of the previous trading day, and the month-on-month increase of 3.41%. The daily fluctuation range is 2092 - 2164, and the spread is 72; The 01 contract has increased its position by 27592 lots today, and has held 348723 lots so far.

Spot market analysis:

Today, China's urea market prices still maintain an upward trend. The printing label has greatly boosted exports in a short period of time and boosted the Chinese market. Other downstream companies are just in need of procurement, and mainstream prices in East China have increased significantly this week.

Specifically, prices in Northeast China have stabilized at 2,240 - 2,460 yuan/ton. Prices in North China rose to 2,380 - 2,590 yuan/ton. Prices in the northwest region are stable at 2,440 - 2,450 yuan/ton. Prices in Southwest China have stabilized at 2,400 - 2,650 yuan/ton. Prices in East China rose to 2,520 - 2,610 yuan/ton. The price of small and medium-sized particles in Central China has risen to 2,520 - 2,670 yuan/ton, and the price of large particles has stabilized at 2,550 - 2,600 yuan/ton. Prices in South China rose to 2,660 - 2,700 yuan/ton.

Market outlook forecast:

In terms of exports, favorable printed label prices drive exports, enterprises are more enthusiastic about production, and factory prices will support them in a short period of time. Market prices are expected to strengthen within a narrow range in the near future. In terms of demand, China's agricultural urea demand is currently in the off-season, and industrial demand is limited. Downstream mainly purchases on demand. Moreover, the current urea price is high, market resistance has begun to increase, and the purchase volume has also been flexibly adjusted mainly according to its own situation. Judging from the situation, the number of printed label exports this time is large, and exporters still have a tendency to replenish stocks at this stage. In terms of futures, UR401 continues to open high today. The positive export situation has also simultaneously affected the changes in futures prices. It is expected that this round of rise will affect the changes in urea market prices in the future.

On the whole, the current urea market price in China is mainly driven by exports, so it is expected that the market will maintain a stable and weak trend in the short term.