Gasoline: The boost in international oil prices is limited, and transactions in the Chinese market are moderate

Gasoline: the boost in international oil prices is limited, and transactions in the Chinese market are moderate.

International crude oil closed

 

Date	Market	Specifications	Close (US dollars / barrel)	Rise and fall
20230811	America	WTI	83.19	0.37
20230811	The United Kingdom	Brent	86.81	0.41

 

Gasoline price index

On Aug. 14, China's gasoline price index fell 4.79, or 0.05%, to 9317.63, while China's gasoline price index fell 9.92, or 0.10%, to 9648.18. The 9-month gasoline index and the 9-month gasoline index were both downgraded, and the price difference between the 9-month gasoline index and the 9-month gasoline index was 330.55.

 

Gasoline market analysis:

Today, the wholesale price of gasoline in China has been reduced by a narrow range in some regions, including 50-100 yuan per ton in Central China, Southwest China and Nine provinces. Gasoline prices in other areas remain relatively stable for the time being. The ex-factory price of geo-refining fluctuated slightly, among which the price reduction of gasoline in North and Central China was concentrated at 30 yuan / ton. Shandong has increased 20 yuan per ton compared with last Friday, while gasoline prices in other areas have temporarily stabilized. At present, trading in China's gasoline market is moderate, gasoline prices have been climbing to relatively high levels recently, and market resistance has increased. Refineries often adjust their quotations flexibly according to their own conditions, and large orders are generally sold.

August 14 main wholesale price of gasoline (yuan / ton)
Area	Gasoline model	Price 8.11	Price 8.14	Rise and fall
North China region	92#	9100-9710	9100-9710	0/0
	95#	9250-10090	9250-10090	0/0
South China	92#	9250-9500	9250-9500	0/0
	95#	9550-9760	9550-9760	0/0
Central China	92#	9100-9400	9100-9300	0/-100
	95#	9350-9650	9350-9550	0/-100
East China region	92#	9100-9600	9100-9600	0/0
	95#	9280-9900	9280-9900	0/0
Northwestern region	92#	9100-9921	9100-9921	0/0
	95#	9300-10910	9300-10910	0/0
Southwest China	92#	9350-9550	9300-9550	-50/0
	95#	9650-10000	9600-10000	-50/0
Northeast China	92#	9150-9800	9150-9800	0/0
	95#	9400-10620	9400-10620	0/0

 

August 14 gasoline refinery ex-factory price (yuan / ton)
Area	Gasoline model	Price 8.11	Price 8.14	Rise and fall
Shandong area	92#	8780-9100	8800-9100	20/0
	95#	8950-9260	8970-9260	20/0
North China region	92#	8850-9140	8820-9110	-30/-30
	95#	9030-9210	9000-9180	-30/-30
Central China	92#	9110-9110	9080-9080	-30/-30
	95#	9310-9310	9280-9280	-30/-30
East China region	92#	8820-8930	8820-8930	0/0
	95#	8970-9080	8970-9080	0/0
Northwestern region	92#	9000-9100	9000-9100	0/0
	95#	9200-9300	9200-9300	0/0
Northeast China	92#	9050-9050	9050-9050	0/0
	95#	9250-9250	9250-9250	0/0

 

Future forecast

From the perspective of international crude oil, OPEC is optimistic about the forecast of crude oil demand. In addition, the risk of Russia's Black Sea export may be uncertain, the situation of tight crude oil supply remains unchanged, and international oil prices still have room to rise. In addition, there are rumors in the market that refined oil export quotas may be issued recently and the export volume is 10 million. The hype of the news will certainly boost China's gasoline market. In addition, Singapore's gasoline futures market has maintained a relatively high rise recently, and China's gasoline export arbitrage space is expanding. However, there is more risk aversion downstream of China's gasoline market when it rises to a certain high level. Taken together, China's gasoline market is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term.

 

 

Maximum retail price list of gasoline and diesel in provinces, autonomous regions, cities and central cities

Since 24:00 on August 9, 2023, the prices of gasoline and diesel in China (standard products, the same below) will be increased by RMB240,230 per ton respectively. After the adjustment, the maximum retail prices of gasoline and diesel in all provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) and central cities are shown in the attached table. The date of the price adjustment will be 24:00 on August 9, 2023, the third working day in China since the price adjustment was announced by the National Development and Reform Commission.

 

Schedule

Maximum retail price of gasoline and diesel in provinces, autonomous regions, cities and central cities

Unit: yuan / ton

	I. areas with one province and one price
	Gasoline (standard)	Diesel oil (standard)
Beijing	9820	8780
Tianjin	9785	8745
Hebei Province	9785	8745
Shanxi province	9855	8800
Liaoning province	9785	8745
Jilin Province	9785	8745
Heilongjiang province	9785	8745
Shanghai	9800	8750
Jiangsu Province	9840	8785
Zhejiang Province	9840	8800
Anhui province	9835	8795
Fujian Province	9860	8810
Jiangxi province	9840	8805
Shandong province	9795	8755
Hubei province	9810	8770
Hunan Province	9850	8830
Henan province	9805	8765
Hainan province	9930	8880
Chongqing	10000	8955
Guangdong province	9865	8815
Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous region	9930	8880
Ningxia Hui Autonomous region	9790	8745
Gansu province	9770	8765
Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous region	9565	8640
II. Areas with one province and one price will not be implemented for the time being
	Gasoline (standard)	Diesel oil (standard)
Hohhot	9800	8760
Chengdu city	10005	8980
Guiyang city	9965	8905
Kunming City	9995	8935
Xi'an city	9770	8755
Xining City	9750	8790

                                                                

Note: 1. The prices in the table include consumption tax, value-added tax, urban construction tax and additional education fees.

2. The prices of gasoline and diesel oil in the table are in line with the compulsory national standards of VIA and Ⅵ in the sixth stage.

3. The sixth stage standard of gasoline and diesel is gasoline and No. 0 vehicle diesel respectively.

4. The prices of gasoline and diesel oil that meet the quality standards of the sixth stage for the national reserve and the Xinjiang production and Construction Corps are 9259 yuan and 8218 yuan per ton respectively, and other relevant oil price policies shall be implemented in accordance with the provisions of the measures for Oil Price Management.