Methanol: Poor macro sentiment performance, futures fell back to high

On August 14, the methanol market price index was 2244. The price index of methanol was 1.34 higher than that of the previous working day and 0.06% higher than the previous working day.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on August 11:

China CFR 270,275USD / ton, Ping

European FOB 215.5-217.5 euros / ton, down 6 euros / ton

Us FOB 67-69 cents per gallon, down 1 cent per gallon

Southeast Asian CFR 284-286 US dollars / ton, down 2 US dollars / ton.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2150-2160 (0), South: 2050-2060 (0), North: 2080-2110 (10), Lunan: 2450 (0), Henan: & nbsp;2320-2355 (- 20), Shanxi: 2240-2300 (40), Port: 2355-2380 (- 10)

Freight:

North Route-Northern Shandong 260-330 (10Universe Mur20), Southern Route-Northern Shandong 250-320 (- 20Uniqure 20), Shanxi-Northern Shandong 130-200 (0max 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 220-290 (0max 30)

Spot market: today, the methanol market is arranged in a narrow range, the spot quotation fluctuates 10-40 yuan / ton, the futures market fluctuates downwards, the port basis is strong, the fundamentals of supply and demand in the Chinese market are OK, and the market quotation is firm. However, affected by the decline in the market, some enterprises hold and sell, and the overall transaction is general. Specifically, the market prices in the main producing areas are stable. Today, the southern route quotes 2050-2060 yuan / ton, the low end is stable, the northern line quotes 2080-2110 yuan / ton, and the low end increases 10 yuan / ton. among them, Shaanxi Changqing methanol price this week: 2000 tons quoted 2260 yuan / ton, more than 2000 tons less than 2270 yuan / ton, the plant 600000 tons methanol plant normal operation, the current on-site inventory pressure is not great, manufacturers more than the sales price However, the decline in the futures market affects market sentiment, and some enterprises fail to auction. In the later stage, they need to pay attention to the operation of the equipment in the field. Consumer market prices are stable and small, including 2450 yuan / ton in southern Shandong and 2420 yuan / ton in northern Shandong. The low end is stable. At present, the market is trading cautiously, and the mentality of operators is slightly stronger. Prices in North China have been partially raised, including 2240-2300 yuan / ton in Shanxi, 40 yuan / ton in the low end, and 2300-2350 yuan / ton in Hebei, with firm enterprise offers and wait-and-see operators at the beginning of the week. Prices in southwest China are stable, including 2200-2280 yuan / ton for Yungui and 2220-2250 yuan / ton for Sichuan and Chongqing, which are stable at the low end. at present, the discussion mood in the field is general, the wait-and-see mood is dominant, and the downstream buys more on demand under the off-season background. Quotations in other regions of China have also been adjusted to varying degrees.

Port market: methanol futures fluctuated downwards today. Paper goods arbitrage and exchange of goods mainly, unilateral receiving delivery is active, the basis is strong. The overall transaction is active throughout the day. Taicang main port transaction price: spot transaction: 2350-2380, base difference 09: 10, margin: 2350-2375, base difference: 09: 5, margin: 10: 10, transaction price: 2340-2370, basis: 09: 2400, basis: 2360-2400, basis: 09: 27pm: 35: 10pm: 510: 2395-2425, base difference: 55: 50.

Future forecast: the coal price is weak and stable in the near future, and the cost support is general. At present, the planned overhaul and restart of some units in the field are carried out as scheduled, Yanzhou Mining Guohong 640000 ton plant is stopped for overhaul, Ningxia Kunpeng 600000 ton plant is restarted, Shaanxi Shenmu plant returns to full load operation, the overall supply in the field increases slowly, and with the completion of the previous plant overhaul, some methanol plants are still expected to restart. Yanchang China Coal, Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel, etc., are scheduled to resume in mid-August, and the supply area is expected to increase. In the later stage, we need to pay attention to the operation of the plant in the field. From the demand point of view, as the high temperature weather fades, the traditional downstream demand is slowly increasing, and the Sirbang MTO plant is restarted, and qualified products have been produced. It is expected that China will resume about next month. Later, we need to pay attention to the commissioning of the MTO plant in Phase III of Xingxing and Baofeng. At present, the macro mood is poor, the cost support is limited, and both the supply side and demand side of methanol are expected to increase. Under the long-empty game, the attitude of the operators in the market is slightly cautious, and the short-term methanol market price is expected to be arranged in a narrow range. In the later stage, we need to pay close attention to the macro view, coal prices and the operation of the plant in the field.