Daily review of urea: Export atmosphere is improving, urea prices continue to increase (August 14)

China Urea Price Index:

According to Feiduo data, the urea small pellet price index on August 14 was 2,507.55, up 9.09 from last Friday, up 0.36% month-on-month, and up 3.97% year-on-year.

Urea futures market:

The opening price of the Urea UR2401 contract: 2102, the highest price: 2115, the lowest price: 2056, the settlement price: 2081, the closing price: 2089. The closing price increased by 39 compared with the settlement price of the previous trading day, and the month-on-month increase by 1.9%. The daily fluctuation range is 2056-2115, and the spread is 59; The 01 contract has reduced its position by 9992 lots today, and has held 321131 lots so far.

Spot market analysis:

Today, China's urea market fluctuated within a narrow range. The quotations of most urea factories were stable, and a few urea factories were tentatively rising slightly due to the support of export orders from the main urea factories in the north. Actual transactions were limited.

Specifically, prices in Northeast China have stabilized at 2,240 - 2,460 yuan/ton. Prices in North China fell to 2,340 - 2,550 yuan/ton. Prices in the northwest region are stable at 2,440 - 2,450 yuan/ton. Prices in Southwest China have stabilized at 2,400 - 2,650 yuan/ton. Prices in East China rose to 2,490 - 2,590 yuan/ton. The price of small and medium-sized particles in Central China has risen to 2,480 - 2,650 yuan/ton, and the price of large particles has stabilized at 2,550 - 2,600 yuan/ton. Prices in South China fell to 2,630 - 2,700 yuan/ton.

Market outlook forecast:

In terms of market transactions, due to the current high urea market price in China, increased market resistance, and the reduction in fertilizer use in China, the current market transaction atmosphere is general, and most market transactions are mainly just-needed transactions. In terms of exports, supported by printing and labeling, most of the main urea factories in the north are supported by export orders. The companies have no obvious sales pressure, mainly focusing on price increases. Internationally, international urea prices are still at a high level, which correspondingly drives price sentiment in the Chinese market, and the overall atmosphere is significantly improving. In terms of futures, UR401 opened higher and higher today. It is expected that this round of rise will affect the rise in urea market prices in the future.

On the whole, affected by the average trading in China and the positive export atmosphere abroad, in the short term, it is expected that the urea market will be more volatile and concentrated.