Methanol: The methanol period is now rising simultaneously and the transaction atmosphere in China is still good

On Aug. 11, the methanol market price index was 2242.66, up 8.91 from yesterday and 0.40 per cent month-on-month.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on August 10:

China CFR 270,275USD / ton, up US $3.00 / tonne

European FOB 221.5-223.5 euros / ton, down 2.50 euros / ton

Us FOB 68-70 cents per gallon, down 1 cent per gallon

Southeast Asia CFR 286-288 US dollars / ton, flat.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2150-2160 (0), South: 2050-2060 (0), North: 2070-2110 (10), Lunan: 2450 (50), Henan: & nbsp;2340-2350 (30), Shanxi: 2200-2260 (0), Port: 2365-2375 (15)

Freight:

North Route-North Shandong 250-350 (0ram 0), South Line-North Shandong 270-340 (0ram 0), Shanxi-North Shandong 130-200 (0ram 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 220-260 (- 10 Universe 10)

Spot market: today, the methanol market continues to rise, and the spot quotation has been raised. 10-50 yuan per ton, futures market volatility is strong, port spot demand is mainly rigid, negotiations are relatively light, the performance of the Chinese market is still strong, driven by macro and demand benefits, prices in some areas continue to rise, downstream and traders are in a good mood to receive goods, and the overall transaction atmosphere is OK. Specifically, the market prices in the main producing areas are stable. Today, the southern route quotes 2050-2060 yuan / ton, the low end is stable, the northern line quotes 2070-2110 yuan / ton, and the low end increases 10 yuan / ton. at present, the inventory pressure on the market is not great, and the futures market continues to be good for market sentiment. The trade transfer price of some enterprises continues to rise, and the shipment is relatively smooth, but the downstream is slightly resistant to the high-price supply, and the low-end transaction is the main part. In the later stage, we also need to pay attention to the operation of the plant in the field. Consumer market prices have been partially raised, including 2450 yuan / ton in southern Shandong, 50 yuan / ton in the low end, 2420 yuan / ton in northern Shandong, and 50 yuan / ton in the low end. At present, the market is cautious, and the mentality of operators is slightly stronger. Prices in North China remain stable, including 2200-2260 yuan / ton in Shanxi and 2300-2350 yuan / ton in Hebei, which is stable at the low end. at present, the enterprise offer is strong, the focus of transaction has risen, and the market trading sentiment is OK. Prices in southwest China are stable, including 2200-2280 yuan / ton for Yungui and 2220-2250 yuan / ton for Sichuan and Chongqing, which is stable at the low end. at present, the mood of negotiation in the field is weak, and the downstream buys more on demand under the background of off-season, and the shipment is general. Quotations in other regions of China have also been adjusted to varying degrees.

Port market: today, morning futures fluctuated in a narrow range. Spot rigid demand buying and selling negotiations. Yuanyue arbitrage offer is strong, unilateral shipments are limited, the basis is slightly stronger, the transaction is light. Taicang main port transaction price: spot transaction: 2365, base difference 09pm 8 deal: 2370-2375, base difference 09-5Gap Melowitz 8 deal: 2355-2365, base difference 09-5pm 10thumb 9 deal: 2390-2405, basis difference 09pm 25max 30.

Future forecast: driven by the recent macro positive, the market sentiment is good, the methanol market price continues to rise, and the transaction atmosphere is OK. At present, there are both overhaul and restart of the plant in the field. Shenglong Chemical Industry, Xin'ao Phase II, Ningxia Kunpeng and other methanol plants are stopped for maintenance, Shaanxi Shenmu and Shaanxi Aowei Qianyuan methanol units are ignited and restarted, and normal production is resumed after a short shutdown in Qinghai Zhonghao and Yulin Yanzhou Mining. The overall supply in the field does not fluctuate much, and the short-term supply performance is still abundant. In the later stage, we need to pay attention to the operation of the plant in the field. From the demand side, the performance of the traditional downstream start-up is different, and the overall demand changes little. Jiangsu Sierbang 800000-ton MTO plant has a recent restart plan, coupled with the increase in the load of some olefin units, olefin demand is expected to increase. In the later stage, we should also pay attention to the load change of the olefin plant in the field and the implementation of the restart plan. At present, the macro side supports the market, the supply margin changes little, the demand end is expected to increase, the mentality of the operators in the market is supported, and the short-term methanol market price is expected to be arranged at a high level. in the later stage, we also need to pay close attention to the macro view, coal prices and the operation of the plant in the field.