Methanol: Methanol market continues to rise, transaction atmosphere in China is good

On Aug. 10, the methanol market price index was 2233.75, up 24.45 from yesterday, up 1.11% from a month earlier.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on August 9:

China CFR 267-271USD / ton, up US $1 / tonne

European FOB 224-226euros / ton, down 5.50 euros / ton

Us FOB 69-71 cents per gallon, flat

Southeast Asia CFR 286-288 US dollars / ton, flat.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2150-2160 (0), South: 2050-2060 (0), North: 2060-2080 (30), Lunan: 2400-2410 (20), Henan: & nbsp;2310-2335 (20), Shanxi: 2200-2260 (0), Port: 2350 (20)

Freight:

North Route-Northern Shandong 250-350 (0ax 10), Southern Route-Northern Shandong 270-340 (- 10max 0), Shanxi-Northern Shandong 130-200 (0max 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 230-270 (0max 0)

Spot market: today, the methanol market continues to rise, the spot quotation is raised by 20-60 yuan / ton, the volatility of the futures market is strong, the port spot negotiations are slightly light, the contradiction between supply and demand in the Chinese market has been alleviated, coupled with the macro good news to boost the market, the mentality of market operators is supported, the focus of market negotiations continues to rise, and traders can accept goods. Specifically, the market prices in the main producing areas have risen. Today, the southern route quotes 2050-2060 yuan / ton, the low end is stable, the northern line quotes 2060-2080 yuan / ton, and the low end increases 30 yuan / ton. at present, the inventory pressure on the market is not great, and the futures market continues to be good for market sentiment. The trade transfer price of some enterprises continues to rise, and the shipment is relatively smooth, but the downstream is slightly resistant to the high-price supply, and the low-end transaction is the main part. In the later stage, we also need to pay attention to the operation of the plant in the field. Consumer market prices have been partially raised, including 2400-2410 yuan / ton in southern Shandong, 20 yuan / ton in the low end, and 2370 yuan / ton in northern Shandong, which is stable at the low end. at present, the market is cautious, and the mentality of operators is slightly stronger. Prices in North China remain stable, including 2200-2260 yuan / ton in Shanxi and 2300-2350 yuan / ton in Hebei. The low end is stable. At present, the enterprise offer is temporarily stable, and the market trading sentiment is OK. Prices in southwest China are stable, including 2200-2280 yuan / ton for Yungui and 2220-2250 yuan / ton for Sichuan and Chongqing, with a stable low end. at present, the negotiation mood is good, the enterprise shipping pressure is not great, and the transaction is relatively smooth. Quotations in other regions of China have also been adjusted to varying degrees.

Port market: methanol futures fluctuated in a narrow range today. The spot goods are sold at a high price, and the purchase order is purchased on demand. Far month arbitrage trading mainly, some unilateral high shipments, the basis stabilized. There is not much trading in Pankou, and the overall transaction throughout the day is general. Taicang main port transaction price: spot transaction: 2350, base difference 09: 010: 8: 2360, basis 09-5: 8: 2360-2365, basis 09-5: 9: 2370-2395, basis: 09: 25.

Future forecast: cost: recent coal prices rise and fall, power plant daily consumption increases, but inventory is still in the middle and high level, coal procurement to maintain rigid demand, short-term coal prices temporarily stable operation. On the supply side: at present, 600000 tons of Xinao Phase II and 600000 tons of Kunpeng equipment in Ningxia are stopped as scheduled, coupled with some equipment failures at the beginning of the week, the supply pressure in the Chinese market has been alleviated, although some of the devices in the field have been ignited and restarted. Yulin Yanzhou Mining Phase I plant is in production, but Shanghai Huayi and Yanzhou Mining Guohong have no obvious increase in short-term supply, and we need to pay attention to the operation of the equipment in the field in the later stage. Demand: the performance of the traditional downstream start-up is different, and the overall demand changes little. Jiangsu Sierbang 800000-ton MTO plant has a recent restart plan, coupled with the increase in the load of some olefin units, the olefin demand is expected to increase, and in the later stage, we need to pay attention to the load changes of olefin units in the field and the implementation of the restart plan. At present, the macro view and the supply side are good for the market, the demand side is expected to increase, the mentality of the operators in the market is supported, and the short-term methanol market price is expected to be arranged at a high level. in the later stage, we also need to pay close attention to the macro view, coal prices and the operation of the plant in the field.