August carbon black opens a rapid upward channel

After the carbon black market ended its long-term low and volatile operation, it experienced a long-lost surge in August. The market price was raised by about 800 yuan. In some regions, the price rose to more than 10,000 yuan. As of now, the carbon black price index is 8,571.25. What caused the market price of carbon black to rise significantly? Let's analyze it from the following aspects.

Cost is good:

    1. Coke prices have been increased for three rounds. The production costs of coke companies have gradually increased, corporate losses have intensified, coke companies have not been motivated to start work, and the supply of coal tar remains low. 2. The operating rate of downstream deep processing and carbon black enterprises increased slightly compared with the same period last year, and the demand for coal tar by downstream enterprises remained high. 3. In July, China's coal tar market prices were low and volatile, and the cost pressure on downstream deep-processing companies was reduced. The prices of most deep-processed products rose one after another, and companies had a certain profit margin.

With both supply and demand favorable, the market price of raw coal tar increased by about 500 yuan/ton in August. As of now, the market price in Shandong, the main coal tar producing area, is 4810 yuan/ton. The raw material market is operating strongly, which has a strong impact on carbon black. Cost support is strong.

Negative demand:

    1. Recently affected by high temperature and rainy weather, the downstream tire industry is in the off-season of traditional sales. Continuous losses by tire companies have led to a decline in start-ups. There is no strong demand for raw material carbon black procurement, but there is a high willingness to replenish goods on dips. 2. Recently, some tire companies have imported more Russian carbon black, which has had an impact on Chinese carbon black companies. Under this circumstance, the carbon black market is obviously oversupplied. 3. The overall start of the rubber and plastic masterbatch products industry is still at a low level, and there are no obvious signs of improvement. When entering the market, we only maintain the status of receiving goods on demand.

Consumption in the end market continues to be suppressed, performance falls short of expectations, and demand support in the carbon black market is insufficient.

On the whole, although the downstream demand is weak and difficult to change, driven by the high operating level of the raw material market and strong cost support, favorable market factors dominate the top, driving the carbon black market price to skyrocket.

Carbon black head company Cabot recently announced that starting from August 16, 2023, it will increase the sales price of all its specialty carbon black products produced in China by 1500 yuan/ton. The news of the increase in Cabot carbon black prices is good for the Chinese carbon black market, and more companies may follow the price adjustment in the market in the later period.

Future generations predict:

    According to Tdd-global's data analysis, in terms of raw materials: the coal tar market price is running at a high level, downstream deep processing and carbon black companies have certain resistance to high-priced raw materials, downstream enthusiasm for obtaining goods may decrease compared with the previous period, and raw material coal tar prices may fluctuate at a high level. There is still some support at the cost end; terminal level: tire companies have sufficient orders, and all-steel tire maintenance companies have resumed work one after another. As production capacity gradually recovers, the operating rate of downstream tire companies may increase within a narrow range; The operating rate of the rubber products industry has increased compared with the previous period, users 'enthusiasm for carbon black procurement may increase, and terminal demand may increase. There are certain positive factors in supply and demand, and it is expected that the short-term carbon black market price will have a certain upward range.