Methanol: Macroeconomic positive factors boost methanol period and now rise simultaneously

On August 9, the methanol market price index was 2209.3, up 6.63 from yesterday, and 0.30% higher than the previous month.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on August 8:

China CFR 266-268USD / ton, Ping

European FOB 229.5-231.5 euros / ton, down 1 euro / ton

Us FOB 69-71 cents per gallon, down 1 cent per gallon

Southeast Asia CFR 286-288 US dollars / ton, flat.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2150-2160 (0), South: 2050-2060 (0), North: 2030-2080 (0), Lunan: 2380-2400 (- 20), Henan: & nbsp;2290-2325 (30), Shanxi: 2200-2260 (0), Port: 2330-2360 (20)

Freight:

North Route-Northern Shandong 260-350 (0ax 0), Southern Route-Northern Shandong 280-340 (0max 0), Shanxi-Northern Shandong 130-200 (0max 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 200-270 (0max 0)

Spot market: today, the methanol market is running strongly, the spot quotation has risen by 20-30 yuan / ton, the futures market has rebounded strongly, the port spot buying has been limited, and the parking supply in the Chinese market has been reduced due to some device breakdowns. In addition, there are fewer transport vehicles in the field recently, the loading speed is limited, the mentality of the operators in the field is supported, the focus of market negotiations is improved, and the transaction is better. Specifically, the market price in the main producing areas is stable and small. Today, the price of the south line is 2050-2060 yuan / ton, and the north line is 2030-2080 yuan / ton. The low end is stable. At present, the supply of some areas in the field is tight, coupled with the methanol extracted from the downstream, the market atmosphere has improved, and the manufacturers sell at a positive price, and the shipment is relatively smooth. The overall transaction is OK, and we need to pay attention to the operation of the plant in the field in the later stage. Consumer market prices are mixed, including 2380-2400 yuan / ton in southern Shandong, 20 yuan / ton in the low end and 2370 yuan / ton in northern Shandong, which is stable at the low end. at present, the market is cautious, and the mentality of operators is slightly stronger. Prices in North China remain stable, including 2200-2260 yuan / ton in Shanxi and 2300-2350 yuan / ton in Hebei. The low end is stable. At present, the enterprise offer is temporarily stable, and the market trading sentiment is OK. Prices in southwest China have been partially raised, with Yungui quotation of 2200-2280 yuan / ton, low-end price increase of 30 yuan / ton, and Sichuan-Chongqing quotation of 2220-2250 yuan / ton, which is stable at the low end. at present, the center of gravity of the negotiations is higher, the enterprise shipping pressure is not great, and the transaction is relatively smooth. Quotations in other regions of China have also been adjusted to varying degrees.

Port market: methanol futures rose after consolidation today. In the morning, unilateral high shipments increased, arbitrage buying mainly, moderate price transactions, weak basis; slightly stalemate in the afternoon. The whole-day deal is OK. Taicang main port transaction price: spot / small order: 2330-2370, basis 09-10 picturesque: 2330-2350, base difference 09-5 Melody 8 transaction: 2325-2365, base difference 09-10 Melody 9 transaction: 2360-2390, basis difference 09-10 22max 27.

Future forecast: the recent macro and cost support is temporarily stable, the futures market is strong, the spot quotation is running with the rise, the market negotiation atmosphere is improving, and there are equipment overhaul and restart at present. Shaanxi Shenmu, Shaanxi Aowei Qianyuan methanol plant ignition restart, Inner Mongolia Xinao Phase II, Shenglong Chemical and other methanol plant parking maintenance, Yulin Yanzhou Mining Phase I plant failure shutdown, the overall supply of the Chinese market has been reduced. In the later stage, we also need to pay attention to the operation of the plant in the field. From the demand side, the overall demand of the traditional downstream is not obvious, and there is a plan to restart the 800000-ton MTO plant in Jiangsu Sierbang in the near future. in addition, during the load increase of some olefin units, the olefin demand is expected to increase, and in the later stage, we also need to pay attention to the load change of the olefin plant in the field and the implementation of the restart plan. At present, the cost support is stable, the supply side is good for the market, the demand side is expected to increase, the mentality of the operators in the market is supported, and the short-term methanol market price is expected to be arranged at a high level. in the later stage, we also need to pay close attention to the macro view, coal prices and the operation of the plant in the field.