Daily Review of Urea: The result of the marking will become the decisive factor in the trend of the futures price (August 9)

China Urea Price Index:

According to Feiduo data, the urea small pellet price index on August 9 was 2,490.91, up 25.32 from yesterday, up 1.03% month-on-month, and up 3.49% year-on-year.

Urea futures market:

The opening price of the urea UR2309 contract: 2270, the highest price: 2288, the lowest price: 2240, the settlement price: 2264, the closing price: 2243. The closing price increased by 8 compared with the settlement price of the previous trading day, and the month-on-month increase by 0.36%. The daily fluctuation range is 2240-2288, and the spread is 48; The 09 contract has reduced its position by 24458 lots today, and has held 114790 lots so far.

Spot market analysis:

Today, affected by the imminent implementation of the stamp label, coupled with the continuous release of positive benefits in the early period, China's urea market price has been raised overall. On the eve of India's announcement of the urea import tender results, the market trading atmosphere has been relatively cautious, and prices have maintained a range of fluctuations.

Specifically, prices in Northeast China rose to 2,240 - 2,460 yuan/ton. Prices in North China rose to 2,320 - 2,520 yuan/ton. Prices in the northwest region are stable at 2,440 - 2,450 yuan/ton. Prices in Southwest China are stable at 2,400 - 2,700 yuan/ton. Prices in East China rose to 2,430 - 2,580 yuan/ton. The price of small and medium-sized particles in Central China rose to 2,450 - 2,650 yuan/ton, and the price of large particles rose to 2,530 - 2,600 yuan/ton. Prices in South China have stabilized at 2,600 - 2,680 yuan/ton.

Market outlook forecast:

In terms of demand, the beginning of autumn has arrived, China's agricultural demand has basically ended, and the market has begun to enter the period of compound fertilizer use. Some factories urgently need urea production and have begun to replenish small quantities, and their ability to consume urea has also increased. Stable downstream demand has also supported the trend of urea prices to a certain extent. In terms of exports, due to China's small competitive advantage, sluggish demand in the international market, and the current export situation is not ideal. Coupled with the increased shipping pressure of urea plants and limited cost support, the weak trend of urea prices is difficult to reverse. Internationally, the specific situation of India's bidding is about to be finalized. According to the current urea quotation in the international market, the export price advantage is obvious, and the market still has certain expectations for this. However, since the positive signs have been released in advance, the results of the signs have an impact on the market. Expectations for the impact will not be too high. In terms of futures, the main urea contract began to switch. The January contract is about to replace the September contract as the new main contract, and the futures price fluctuates slightly higher.

On the whole, China's supply and demand are currently relatively balanced, and the market wait-and-see attitude is relatively serious. The industry is currently mainly concerned about the international market conditions and the results announced by the stamp label. Therefore, it is still necessary to continue to pay attention to the international market dynamics and related influencing factors.