PVC: Futures prices hit bottom and rebounded strongly. Formosa Plastics 'price rose more than expected. Spot prices fell first and then rose.

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August 8, 2023, 4:52 PM

PVC futures analysis: August 8 V2309 contract opening price: 6145, highest price: 6193, lowest price: 6089, position: 489697, settlement price: 6141, yesterday settlement: 6136, up: 5, daily trading volume: 753106 lots, precipitated capital: 2.116 billion, capital outflow: 50.36 million.

List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton

Area	Price 8.7	Price 8.8	Rise and fall	Remarks
North China	5940-6070	5950-6050	10/-20	Send to cash remittance
East China	5980-6030	6000-6070	20/40	Cash out of the warehouse
South China	6050-6180	6060-6200	10/20	Cash out of the warehouse
Northeast China	5900-6050	5900-6050	0/0	Send to cash remittance
Central China	5980-6040	5980-6040	0/0	Send to cash remittance
Southwest	5850-6000	5850-6000	0/0	Send to cash remittance

PVC spot market: China PVC market mainstream transaction prices diverge throughout the day, falling first and then rising trend. Compared with the valuation, the low-end price in North China rose 10 yuan / ton, the high-end price fell 20 yuan / ton, East China rose 20-40 yuan / ton, South China rose 10-20 yuan / ton, and the northeast, central China and southwest regions were stable. The ex-factory prices of upstream PVC production enterprises still have a sporadic drop of 30-50 yuan per ton, and most businesses maintain stability and do not adjust with the rise and fall of futures prices. However, the price quotation in the spot market is divergent. After the futures price fell in the morning, the trader's offer price fell by 20-30 yuan / ton. With the rise of intraday price, the merchant adjusted the price for the second time, recovering some of the decline and even showing a further upward trend. After the futures price goes down, the point price supply has a price advantage, and the basis has been increased, including East China basis offer 01 contract-(150-170), South China 01 contract-(30-50-80), North 01 contract-(430-450), Southwest 01 contract-(200-280). Low prices are relatively active, and trading is better than yesterday.

Futures point of view: PVC2309 contract night trading opened slightly up, but not strong enough and then fell. Futures prices fell further after the start of morning trading, bottomed out after the lowest point of 6089, showed a relatively obvious upward trend in a short period of time, and rose slightly again in late afternoon trading. 2309 contracts fluctuate from 6089 to 6193 throughout the day, with a spread of 104. 09 contracts reduced their positions by 13532 hands, and so far they have held 489697 positions. The 2401 contract closed at 6222, with 333843 positions.

PVC Future Forecast:

Futures: & the operation of the nbsp; PVC09 contract price hit bottom and rebounded strongly as mentioned in the title. First of all, the current policy has not seen a larger direction. However, the fundamentals of PVC led Formosa Plastics prices to rise more than expected, and the futures prices, whether 09 contracts or 01 contracts, showed an obvious trend of rising in a short time. However, there is a big difference between the two contracts. Among them, the 09 contract opened 23.6% more and opened 20.8% more, while the 2401 contract opened 23.2% more empty and opened 28.2% more and increased the position by 38684 hands. On the one hand, consider the transfer of the insurance policy, on the other hand, in the market of changing positions for months, the market in recent months is more likely to be stimulated by the news to produce a larger range of fluctuations. Overall, the futures price may still maintain a small upward trend in the short term, but observe the performance of the pressure level, of which 09 is about 6250 and 01 is about 6300.

Spot: & the market trend of nbsp; futures has reversed, and the short-term increase has led to a rapid increase in inquiry enthusiasm during this period, the low point price is active, and there is also a transaction before the price has not been adjusted, which is better than yesterday. And according to the feedback of enterprises and exporters, enquiries also began to increase gradually, but foreign trade orders did not hear the volume, and the high price suppressed part of the demand. The shift from decline to rise in the current prices in the two markets is mainly due to the rise in the quotation of Formosa Plastics in Taiwan. Taiwan Plastics of China announced a pre-sale price for PVC in September, with Chinese mainland up US $70 and CFR China US $885 / ton. India rose $80 a tonne and CIF India $900a tonne. It quickly triggered a reaction and a rise in China's two cities, with few other fundamental variables. On the outer disk, the international settlement price of crude oil fell, and investors prepared for weak oil demand. In addition, Fed officials made comments in support of further interest rate hikes, and investors will look at this week's Chinese economic data to determine whether the Chinese government is willing to take more stimulus measures to support the economy. In addition, investors will also follow the US consumer price index released on Thursday for clues about the Fed's monetary policy path. On the whole, in the short term, the spot market of PVC may face a situation in which both ups and downs are limited.

PVC spread arbitrage analysis:

Arbitrage Analysis of PVC spread
PVC	Contract price difference	8.7 days	8.8	Rate of change
	V2309 collection	6149	6172	23
	Average spot price in East China	6005	6035	30
	Average spot price in South China	6115	6130	15
	PVC2309 basis difference	-144	-137	7
	V2401 collection	6191	6222	31
	V2309-2401 closed	-42	-50	-8
	PP2309 collection	7392	7346	-46
	Plastic L2309 collection	8164	8115	-49
	V--PP basis difference	-1243	-1174	69
	Vmure-L basis difference of plastics	-2015	-1943	72

China PVC Index: according to Tuduoduo data, China calcium Carbide PVC spot index rose 11.22%, or 0.186%, to 6032.09 on August 8. The ethylene method PVC spot index was 6538.06, up 17.33%, with a range of 0.266%. The calcium carbide index rose, the ethylene index rose, and the ethylene-calcium carbide index spread was 505.97.

PVC warehouse receipt daily:

Variety	Warehouse / branch warehouse	8.7 warehouse orders	8.8 warehouse orders	change
Polyvinyl chloride	China Reserve shares	360	360	0
	China Central Reserve Nanjing	360	360	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang International Trade	2,162	2,162	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Peak supply chain	1,000	1,000	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangyin Xiefeng	768	810	42
Polyvinyl chloride	Benniu Port, Changzhou	3,393	3,393	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Zhengsheng	1,521	1,821	300
Polyvinyl chloride	Changxing, Zhejiang	120	120	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Yanjin	1,854	2,467	613
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Benniu Port)	298	298	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Zhejiang International Trade)	149	149	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Benniu Port)	900	900	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Railway Changxing)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Yongan Capital (Benniu Port)	1,200	1,200	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty petrochemical (Benniu Port)	2,399	2,399	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty Petrochemical (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,302	1,800	498
Polyvinyl chloride	Sino-Thai Duojing (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,238	1,238	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Tiantai International Trade (Benniu Port)	260	260	0
PVC subtotal		19,224	20,677	1,453
Total		19,224	20,677	1,453