Methanol: Futures rebounded slightly in China's trading atmosphere is still good

On August 8th, the methanol market price index was 2202.67, down 2.84 from yesterday, and 0.13% lower than the previous month.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on August 7:

China CFR 266-270USD / ton, Ping

European FOB 230.5-232.5 euros / ton, flat

Us FOB 70-72 cents per gallon, down 1 cent per gallon

Southeast Asian CFR 286-288 US dollars / ton, down 1 US dollars / ton.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2150-2160 (20), South: 2050-2060 (0), North: 2030-2080 (10), Lunan: 2400 (0), Henan: & nbsp;2260-2285 (- 10), Shanxi: 2200-2230 (0), Port: 2310-2325 (- 5)

Freight:

North Route-Northern Shandong 260-350 (0ax 0), Southern Route-Northern Shandong 280-340 (0max 0), Shanxi-Northern Shandong 130-200 (0max 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 200-270 (0max 0)

Spot market: today, the methanol market is arranged in a narrow range, and the spot quotation fluctuates by 5-20. Yuan / ton, the futures market rebounded slightly, spot purchases are mainly on demand, the supply in some parts of the Chinese market has been reduced, the good news about olefins in the lower reaches has come out, the market mentality has been boosted, and the transaction situation is OK, but the lower reaches have some resistance to the supply of high-priced goods, and traders are more cautious. Specifically, the market prices in the main producing areas have been partially raised. Today, the price on the southern line is 2050-2060 yuan / ton, and the low end is stable. The price on the northern line is 2030-2080 yuan / ton, and the low end is increased by 10 yuan / ton. At present, the supply in the field is gradually restored, but due to the immediate shutdown of the device, the inventory in some areas is still tight, and the transaction situation in some areas is OK. In the later stage, we need to pay attention to the operation of the equipment in the field. Consumer market prices are mixed, of which southern Shandong 2400 yuan / ton, low-end stability, northern Shandong 2370 yuan / ton, low-end increase of 40 yuan / ton, the current market trading is slightly cautious, the trading atmosphere is general. Up to now, the bidding price in today's market is around 2370 yuan / ton, including 2370 yuan / ton for Dongfang Hualong methanol and 2370 yuan / ton for Shenchi Chemical Industry. Prices in North China remain stable, including 2200-2230 yuan / ton in Shanxi and 2300-2350 yuan / ton in Hebei. The low end is stable. At present, the enterprise offer is temporarily stable, and the market trading sentiment is OK. Prices rose in the southwest, of which Yunnan and Guizhou quoted 2170-2280 yuan / ton, the low end was stable, Sichuan and Chongqing quoted 2220-2250 yuan / ton, and the low end increased by 70 yuan / ton. at present, the focus of negotiations is higher, the pressure on enterprise shipments is not great, and the transaction is relatively smooth. Quotations in other regions of China have also been adjusted to varying degrees.

Port market: today, methanol futures are slightly more volatile. Spot and monthly offer is limited, appropriate price follow-up, the basis is strong; paper single side every high shipment, arbitrage and exchange buy mainly, the basis is slightly weak. The deal is mediocre throughout the day. Taicang main port transaction price: 8 transaction price: 2310-2330, base difference 09-3 Melody 0There is a deal: 2310-2330, basis difference 09-5Maple transaction 8 transaction price: 2315-2330, basis difference 09-5amp Melody 0cross 9 transaction: 2345-2365, basis difference 09pm 25exp 28.

Future forecast: the recent cost support is temporarily stable, the futures market rebounds slightly, some equipment failures stop and the news of olefin external mining comes out, the mentality of the operators in the field is supported, and the market sentiment has improved. at present, there are both on-site maintenance and restart devices. Shaanxi Aowei Qianyuan 200000-ton methanol plant is ignited and restarted, Longxingtai 300000-ton plant load is rising, and part of the plant failure is about to stop. The shutdown of the 600000-ton unit in the first phase of Yulin Yanzhou Mining Co., Ltd. to a certain extent offset the expected increase in supply brought about by the recovery of the plant, and it is necessary to pay attention to the operation of the plant in the later stage. From the demand side, the overall start-up of the traditional downstream has declined slightly, and the demand has not improved significantly. Jiangsu Sierbang 800000-ton MTO plant has a restart plan this week, coupled with the increase in the load of some olefin units, olefin demand is expected to increase. In the later stage, we should also pay attention to the load change of the olefin plant in the field and the implementation of the restart plan. At present, the cost support is stable, and the contradiction between supply and demand still exists, but the olefin demand is expected to be better, the market mentality is supported, the cautious mood of the operators in the market is still there, and the short-term methanol market price is expected to be arranged in a narrow range. In the later stage, we also need to pay close attention to the macro view, coal prices and the operation of the plant in the field.