Daily Review of Urea: The price of the printing label is about to be implemented (August 8)

China Urea Price Index:

According to Feiduo data, the urea small pellet price index on August 8 was 2,465.59, down 2.27 from yesterday, down 0.09% month-on-month, and up 1.81% year-on-year.

Urea futures market:

The opening price of the Urea UR2309 contract: 2233, the highest price: 2259, the lowest price: 2213, the settlement price: 2235, and the closing price: 2243. The closing price increased by 38 compared with the settlement price of the previous trading day, and the month-on-month increase by 1.72%. The daily fluctuation range is 2213-2259, and the spread is 46; The 09 contract has reduced its position by 12415 lots today, and has held 139248 lots so far.

Spot market analysis:

Today, China's urea market prices have risen in the region, with export expectations. Coupled with downstream bargain-hunting replenishment demand, mainstream prices in East China have increased overall. Other regions have also adjusted their market prices before the implementation of the stamp label.

Specifically, prices in Northeast China have stabilized at 2,240 - 2,460 yuan/ton. Prices in North China rose to 2,300 - 2,490 yuan/ton. Prices in the northwest region are stable at 2,440 - 2,450 yuan/ton. Prices in Southwest China are stable at 2,400 - 2,700 yuan/ton. Prices in East China rose to 2,390 - 2,470 yuan/ton. The price of small and medium-sized particles in Central China has risen to 2,400 - 2,650 yuan/ton, and the price of large particles has stabilized at 2,510 - 2,600 yuan/ton. Prices in South China have stabilized at 2,600 - 2,700 yuan/ton.

Market outlook forecast:

In terms of supply and demand, most maintenance equipment was restored this week, and supply increased; urea use declined, agricultural demand weakened, and supply exceeded demand. Internationally, the average international urea price last week was around US$427/ton. The international urea price was at a high level. Coupled with the imminent implementation of the stamp label, most manufacturers began to increase their urea ex-factory quotations, and the announcement of the stamp price is expected to be at a high level. In terms of futures, the trading price of urea futures opened higher and higher today, and the corresponding urea market price will increase simultaneously.

On the whole, although the supply exceeds demand in China's urea market, the international urea price remains high, and futures prices are rising today. It is expected that the urea market price will remain high in the short term, but the specific situation still needs to pay attention to the results of the implementation of the stamp label.