Methanol: Methanol futures fluctuated and weak Spot prices fell simultaneously

On August 7th, the methanol market price index was 2205.51, which was 6.05 lower than that of the previous working day, and 0.27% lower than the previous working day.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on August 4:

China CFR 266-268USD / ton, Ping

European FOB 230.5-232.5 euros / ton, up 3.50 euros / ton

Us FOB 71-73 cents per gallon, flat

Southeast Asia CFR 287-289 US dollars / ton, flat.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2130-2180 (0), South: 2050-2060 (0), North: & nbsp;2020-2060 (0), Lunan: 2400 (0), Henan: & nbsp;2270-2280 (- 10), Shanxi: 2200-2230 (- 10), Port: 2315-2325 (- 20)

Freight:

Northern route-260-350 (- 20amp 0), southern route-northern Shandong 280-340 (10max 0), Shanxi-northern Shandong 130-200 (10max 0), Guanzhong-southwest Shandong 200-270 (0max 0)

Spot market: today, the methanol market is narrowly down, the spot quotation is down by 10-50 yuan / ton, the volatility of the futures market is weak, the basis is strong, the port spot transaction is general, the supply in the Chinese market is abundant, and the demand side does not change much. quotations have fallen in some areas, and the transaction atmosphere is general. Specifically, the market prices in the main producing areas are stable. Today, the southern route quotes 2050-2060 yuan / ton, the northern line quotes 2020-2060 yuan / ton, and the low end is stable. Among them, Shaanxi Changqing methanol price this week: 2000 tons quoted 2180 yuan / ton, more than 2000 tons less than 2190 yuan / ton, the plant 600000 tons methanol plant normal operation, the current on-site supply is gradually restored, but local inventory is still tight, manufacturers mainly, general transaction In the later stage, we also need to pay attention to the operation of the plant in the field. Consumer market prices have been partially reduced, including 2400 yuan / ton in southern Shandong, stable in the low end, 2330-2350 yuan / ton in northern Shandong, and 20 yuan / ton in the lower end. At present, trading on the market is slightly cautious, mainly wait-and-see at the beginning of the week, and the trading atmosphere is general. Prices in North China fell partially, of which Shanxi quoted 2200-2230 yuan / ton, the low end was reduced by 10 yuan / ton, Hebei quoted 2300-2350 yuan / ton, low-end stable, market trading temporarily stable, wait and see at the beginning of the week, some enterprises have not yet issued a new price. The price in southwest China is stable, including 2170-2280 yuan / ton for Yungui and 2150-2250 yuan / ton for Sichuan and Chongqing, which is stable at the low end. at present, the shipping pressure of enterprises in the field is not great, and the downstream rigid demand buys and buys, and the transaction is relatively smooth. Quotations in other regions of China have also been adjusted to varying degrees.

Port market: methanol futures consolidation today. The spot offer is firm with a slight stalemate. Within the month arbitrage shipments, short-term mainly; long-term unilateral high selling low suction, arbitrage delivery continues, the basis remains stable. The deal is mediocre throughout the day. Taicang main port transaction price: 8 deal: 2315-2325, basis 09-0 position 8 deal: 2310-2320, basis 09-0 position 8 transaction: 2310-2330, base difference 09-2 picturesque 9 transaction: 2340-2360, basis difference 09-26 swap 30.

Future forecast: recent cost and macro support is temporarily stable, futures market volatility is weak, spot market prices have fallen, market sentiment is slightly general, Chinese market supply is expected to gradually land, local supply has increased, coupled with the recent weather factors affected by local transport vehicles, resulting in higher freight rates and limited loading speed, some enterprise inventories have risen slightly, although some equipment failures are about to stop. However, in August, a number of methanol units are planned to resume and the load of some units continues to rise, and China's supply is still expected to increase. In the face of methanol market, demand side, Lihuayi MTBE plant, Tianjin Bohua MTO plant storage and maintenance plan, Jiangsu Sierbang 800000 ton MTO plant is scheduled to resume in mid-August, coupled with the increase in the load of some olefin units, the short-term change is expected to be small after demand-side hedging. In the later stage, we should also pay attention to the load change and operation of the downstream devices in the field. At present, the macro view and cost support are stable, China's supply is growing steadily, demand is slowly rising, the cautious mood of the operators in the market is still there, and the short-term methanol market price is expected to be arranged in a narrow range. In the later stage, we also need to pay close attention to the macro view, coal prices and the operation of the plant in the field.