Daily Review of Urea: Market demand weakens waiting for the implementation of the stamp label (August 7)

China Urea Price Index:

According to Feiduo data, the urea small pellet price index on August 7 was 2,467.86, down 32,27 from last Friday, down 1.29% month-on-month, and up 0.15% year-on-year.

Urea futures market:

The opening price of the Urea UR2309 contract: 2232, the highest price: 2249, the lowest price: 2178, the settlement price: 2205, the closing price: 2222. The closing price fell 68 compared with the settlement price of the previous trading day, and the month-on-month decline was 2.97%. The daily fluctuation range was 2178-2249, and the spread was 71; The 09 contract reduced its position by 24927 lots today, and its position held so far was 251663 lots.

Spot market analysis:

Today, China's urea market prices fell overall. Urea prices rose to a high level in the early stage, and downstream resistance to high prices was high. In addition, China's current demand is weak, and the market is dominated by weak shocks.

Specifically, prices in Northeast China have stabilized at 2,230 - 2,450 yuan/ton. Prices in North China fell to 2,300 - 2,480 yuan/ton. Prices in the northwest region are stable at 2,510 - 2,520 yuan/ton. Prices in Southwest China are stable at 2,450 - 2,700 yuan/ton. Prices in East China fell to 2,360 - 2,440 yuan/ton. The price of small and medium-sized particles in Central China fell to 2,390 - 2,700 yuan/ton, and the price of large particles fell to 2,510 - 2,600 yuan/ton. Prices in South China have stabilized at 2,600 - 2,700 yuan/ton.

Market outlook forecast:

On the supply side, it is expected that urea maintenance units will resume construction and increase this week, which will have a negative impact on supply. On the demand side, agricultural demand has weakened, mostly industrial demand. Urea use has declined, and China's demand for fertilizer is not high. Internationally, the tender for imported urea issued by India has not yet been implemented, and there is still great uncertainty in the tender. Most people hold a wait-and-see attitude. It is expected that the announcement of the printed price this week will have a greater impact on the Chinese market. In terms of futures, the trading price of urea futures rose last Friday and returned to a downward trend again today, which will subsequently affect the simultaneous downward adjustment of urea market prices.

On the whole, the supply of urea in the market has increased, and demand is lower than the supply. Urea prices are expected to be mainly weak and volatile, and at the same time, they still need to wait for the results of the implementation of the stamp label.