Methanol: Positive support still exists in the short term methanol or remains high

On August 4th, the methanol market price index was 2211.56, up 4.18% from yesterday, and 0.19% higher than the previous month.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on August 3:

China CFR 266-268USD / ton, down US $2.00 / tonne

European FOB 227,229 euros / ton, up 10 euros / ton

Us FOB 71-73 cents per gallon, up 6 cents per gallon

Southeast Asian CFR 287-289 US dollars / ton, down 1 US dollars / ton.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2130-2180 (0), South: 2050-2060 (0), North: & nbsp;2020-2060 (0), Lunan: 2400 (0), Henan: & nbsp;2280-2320 (20), Shanxi: 2210-2235 (0), Port: 2335-2350 (25)

Freight:

North Route-Northern Shandong 280-340 (0amp 0), Southern Route-Northern Shandong 270-340 (0mp 0), Shanxi-Northern Shandong 140-200 (0max 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 200-270 (0max 0)

Spot market: today, the methanol market is slightly raised, the spot quotation is raised by 20-50 yuan / ton, the futures market rises and then falls, the basis stabilizes, the port spot transaction is general, and the supply in the Chinese market continues to increase, but the macro-impact is more favorable, the superimposed demand is facing good expectations, the market price is slightly stronger, and the transaction sentiment is slightly different. Specifically, the market prices in the main producing areas are stable and small. Today, the price of the southern route is 2050-2060 yuan / ton, and the northern line is 2020-2060 yuan / ton. The low end is stable. At present, there is ample supply in the field, some production enterprises continue to ship goods, and the transaction is general. Rigid demand for replenishment is the main demand, and we also need to pay attention to the operation of the equipment in the field in the later stage. Consumer market prices are partially reduced, of which southern Shandong 2400 yuan / ton, low-end stability, northern Shandong 2350-2380 yuan / ton, low-end down 10 yuan / ton, the current trading is slightly cautious, the trading atmosphere is general. Up to now, the bidding price in today's market is around 2350-2355 yuan / ton, including 2350 yuan / ton for Shenchi chemical methanol and 2355 yuan / ton for Dongying Hualian petrochemical industry. Prices in North China remain stable, including 2210-2235 yuan / ton in Shanxi and 2300-2350 yuan / ton in Hebei, with stable low-end, stable market trading and firm quotations from manufacturers. The price in southwest China is stable, including 2170-2280 yuan / ton for Yungui and 2150-2250 yuan / ton for Sichuan and Chongqing, which is stable at the low end. at present, the shipping pressure of enterprises in the field is not great, and the downstream rigid demand buys and buys, and the transaction is relatively smooth. Quotations in other regions of China have also been adjusted to varying degrees.

Port market: today, methanol futures shock consolidation. The spot offer is sparse, the rigid demand purchase. Long-term paper goods every high shipment, unilateral low inquiry, arbitrage buying mainly, the basis stabilized. It's a mediocre deal. Taicang main port transaction price: spot order: 2350, basis 09: 0, margin 09-7, margin 09-7, transaction price: 2350-2365, basis: 09-5, margin: 2375-2400, basis: 09, 25: 30.

Future forecast: cost: recent coal prices continue to weaken, cost support weakens, although in the peak summer period, but power plant inventory is generally high, coal procurement sentiment is general, coupled with a substantial increase in imported coal, short-term coal prices are weak and stable. On the supply side: supply in central China is expected to land, and local supply has increased. Although imports have decreased recently due to typhoon weather, in August, methanol plants of 300000 tons in Longxingtai, 600000 tons in Kunpeng in Ningxia and 600000 tons in Shenmu in Shaanxi are planned to resume. China's supply is still expected to increase, and supply continues to be negative in the face of methanol market. On the demand side: due to the gradual recovery of many units, the demand for some traditional downstream products is expected to increase, but the overall demand does not change much. In terms of olefins, Tianjin Bohua 600000 ton olefin plant is stopped for maintenance, Jiangsu Sierbang 800000 ton MTO plant is scheduled to resume in mid-August, coupled with the increase in the load of some olefin units, short-term downstream olefin demand is expected to increase. In the later stage, we should also pay attention to the load change and operation of the olefin unit in the field. At present, the cost area is weakening, the macro orientation is good, China's supply is growing steadily, the demand is rising synchronously, the cautious sentiment of the operators in the market is still there, and the methanol market price is expected to remain high in the short term. In the later stage, we also need to pay close attention to the macro view, coal prices and the operation of the plant in the field.