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[Soda ash] Industry supply is shrinking, and soda ash prices continue to rise (8.3 Soda ash Weekly Review)

121,393
August 4, 2023, 3:51 PM

1. Analysis of China's soda ash market

This week, the market price of soda ash in China continues to rise. As of now, the mainstream ex-factory price of light soda in China is between 1,950 - 2,150 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price of heavy soda delivered to the terminal is between 2,200 - 2,300 yuan/ton. Due to the continuous maintenance of equipment by some soda ash manufacturers, the market starts to decline again, manufacturers 'supply continues to be tight, and manufacturers' inventories remain at a low level; At present, soda ash companies have sufficient orders to issue, and manufacturers mainly deliver early orders. Some manufacturers schedule orders until the beginning of next month, and companies control that they will not quote for the time being. The downstream market demand is stable, the demand for light soda is still average, and the demand for heavy soda has increased. Enterprises maintain just need to purchase. Due to tight market supply, the price of new orders in the soda ash market has increased to 50-100 yuan/ton, and the market transaction atmosphere is good.

 

Forecast for next week: soda ash manufacturers have more orders. Next week, companies such as Southern Soda Industry will restock equipment maintenance plans. Early maintenance companies will resume construction one after another, and market starts may increase; overall market demand remains stable, soda ash manufacturers 'inventories are low, and market purchases remain in demand. The soda ash market may operate steadily in the short term.

 

2.  Comparison of market prices of soda ash in regions

Unit: yuan/ton

areas

specifications

on July 27

August 3

rise and fall

previous month

Northeast China

light soda ash

2150

2300

150

6.98%

heavy sodium carbonate

2300

2300

0

0.00%

in North China

light soda ash

2025

2150

125

6.17%

heavy sodium carbonate

2250

2250

0

0.00%

East China

light soda ash

2100

2125

25

1.19%

heavy sodium carbonate

2250

2250

0

0.00%

central China

light soda ash

2000

2050

50

2.50%

heavy sodium carbonate

2225

2250

25

1.12%

South China

light soda ash

2150

2225

75

3.49%

heavy sodium carbonate

2300

2325

25

1.09%

southwestern region

light soda ash

2150

2175

25

1.16%

heavy sodium carbonate

2225

2225

0

0.00%

northwestern region

light soda ash

1900

2000

100

5.26%

heavy sodium carbonate

1875

1975

100

5.33%

 

3. Soda ash process profit statement

As of August 3 this week, the profit of the combined alkali method was 889.5 yuan/ton, up 107.5 yuan/ton month-on-month; the profit of the ammonia-alkali method was 515.3 yuan/ton, up 32.1 yuan/ton month-on-month.

production process

on July 27

August 3

Weekly ups and downs

rise and fall

combined alkali method

782

889.5

107.5

13.75%

ammonia-soda process

483.2

515.3

32.1

6.64%

 

 

4. Equipment maintenance of soda ash enterprises

This week, the soda ash industry started at 77%, down 4% month-on-month. Among them, ammonia soda manufacturers started at an average of 78%, joint soda manufacturers started at an average of 79%, and natural soda plants started at an average of 80%. According to incomplete statistics, the output of soda ash manufacturers this week is about 520,000 tons.

Equipment maintenance list of soda ash enterprises on August 3, 2023

process

enterprise name

production capacity

device condition

combined alkali method

Fujian Yaolong

40

Maintenance will start from September 11, 2022, and recovery time will be determined

Jinshan, Henan

390

Enterprise installation starts at around 90%

Xuzhou Fengcheng

60

Enterprise device is currently being restored

Sichuan hebang

30

Enterprise installation starts at around 70%

Henan Junhua

80

Enterprise installations started at around 80%

Gansu Jinchang

60

Starting from July 15, the company will be overhauled for one month

Zhongyan Kunshan

80

Starting from July 31, the company's equipment maintenance will take about one month

Tianjin soda plant

80

Enterprise installation starts at around 50%

chlor-alkali process

salt Lake magnesium industry

120

Enterprise equipment is being parked for maintenance

Shandong Haitian

150

At present, the company's equipment is under construction

Zhongyan Kunshan

150

Enterprise installation starts at around 60%

Zhongyan Qinghai

150

Enterprise installation starts at around 60%

 

5. Soda ash manufacturer inventory

The total inventory of Chinese soda ash manufacturers this week was 240,000 tons, compared with 250,000 tons last week, a month-on-month decrease of 10,000 tons or 4.00%.