Methanol: The methanol period is now simultaneously lowered, and market sentiment has dropped

On August 3, the methanol market price index was 2207.38, down 5.08 from yesterday, and 0.23% lower than the previous month.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on August 2:

China CFR 268-275USD / ton, Ping

European FOB 217-219 euros / ton, down 0.25 euros / ton

Us FOB 65-67 cents per gallon, flat

Southeast Asian CFR 288-290 US dollars / ton, down 1 US dollars / ton.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2130-2180 (0), South: 2050-2060 (0), North: & nbsp;2020-2060 (0), Lunan: 2400-2410 (0), Henan: & nbsp;2260-2310 (- 30), Shanxi: 2210-2235 (- 10), Port: & nbsp;2310-2335 (- 30)

Freight:

North Route-Northern Shandong 280-340 (10amp 0), Southern Route-Northern Shandong 270-340 (10max 20), Shanxi-Northern Shandong 140-200 (20mp 20), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 200-270 (0max 0)

Spot market: today, the methanol market fell in a narrow range, the spot price was lowered by 10-50 yuan / ton, the futures market fluctuated downwards, the basis was strong, the port spot transaction was OK, the supply in the Chinese market continued to increase, and the gap between supply and demand increased. The fundamentals are general, and market sentiment has fallen somewhat. Specifically, the market price in the main producing areas remains stable, and the price is quoted on the southern route today. 2050-2060 yuan / ton, the north line quotation 2020-2060 yuan / ton, low-end stability, the current market supply is abundant, buy inventory bearish mentality, some production enterprises continue to ship, the transaction is general, multi-gap operation is the main, in the later stage, we also need to pay attention to the operation of the plant in the field. Consumer market prices are stable, of which southern Shandong 2400-2410 yuan / ton, northern Shandong 2360-2380 yuan / ton, low-end stability, the current market trading is slightly cautious, the trading atmosphere is general. Prices in North China have been partially reduced, including 2210-2235 yuan / ton in Shanxi, 10 yuan / ton in the low end, and 2300-2350 yuan / ton in Hebei, with stable market trading and firm quotations from manufacturers. Prices in southwest China remain stable, of which Yungui quotes 2170-2280 yuan / ton, Sichuan and Chongqing quote 2150-2250 yuan / ton, the low end is stable, the current market negotiations are flat, downstream multi-rigid demand to buy, the transaction is relatively smooth. Quotations in other regions of China have also been adjusted to varying degrees.

Port market: today, methanol futures shock consolidation. Spot rigid demand negotiations, the basis is strong. Contract negotiations in recent months are dominated by high selling and low suction of long-term paper goods, positive arbitrage delivery and strong basis. It's a small deal. Taicang main port transaction price: 8 transaction price: 2310-2340, base difference 09-5 Maximus 10 position 8 transaction: 2310-2335, base difference 09-5 Universe Melissa 8 transaction price: 2315-2350, base difference 09-5 Universe 5 transaction 9 transaction: 2345-2375, basis difference 09-5 Universe 25 swap 33.

Forecast in the future: the support of coal prices to costs is limited in the near future, and the macro policy is good for the market in the short term, but the supply in some areas is expected to land, the supply on the market continues to increase, and the trading mood of the market shows a slight stalemate. At present, Hebi Coal Chemical, Central Plains Dahua, Henan Zhongxin and other devices have returned and stabilized the products one after another. In August, some of the devices are planned to resume, and the supply and storage in the field is expected to increase. In addition, the Chinese market cycle inventory performance is narrow, supply in the face of methanol market continues to be bad, the demand side, the traditional downstream demand changes little, Shenhua Yulin 600000 ton MTO plant storage and maintenance plan, Jiangsu Sierbang 800000 ton MTO plant planned to resume in mid-August, part of the olefin plant load increase in the short term downstream olefin demand is expected to increase, the later need to pay attention to the olefin plant load change and operation. At present, the macro outlook is good, and both supply and demand are expected to increase, but the increase in supply is greater than demand, the wait-and-see mood of the operators in the market is gradually rising, and the short-term methanol market price is expected to be arranged in a narrow range. In the later stage, we also need to pay close attention to the macro view, coal prices and the operation of the plant in the field.