Methanol: Methanol market continues to be strong and Chinese transaction sentiment is mixed

On August 2nd, the methanol market price index was 2212.46, up 13.21 from yesterday, and 0.60% higher than the previous month.

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Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on August 1:

China CFR 268-275USD / ton, up US $8 / tonne

European FOB 217.25-219.25 euros / ton, up 3 euros / ton

Us FOB 65-67 cents per gallon, flat

Southeast Asia CFR 289-291 US dollars / ton, up 5 US dollars / ton.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2130-2180 (0), South: 2050-2060 (0), North: & nbsp;2020-2060 (0), Lunan: 2400-2410 (40), Henan: & nbsp;2290-2335 (10), Shanxi: 2220-2270 (50), Port: & nbsp;2340-2365 (45)

Freight:

North Route-North Shandong 270-340 (30amp 20), South Line-North Shandong 260-320 (10ax 10), Shanxi-North Shandong 120-180 (0ax 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 200-270 (10max 10)

Spot market: today, the methanol market continues to be strong, the spot quotation rises by 10-50 yuan / ton, the futures market fluctuates in a narrow range, the basis stabilizes, the port spot transaction is average, the Chinese market equipment returns to the ground basically, the supply increases steadily, the local area shipment is smooth, the market transaction atmosphere is slightly different. Specifically, the market prices in the main producing areas have moved steadily, and the price is quoted on the southern route today. 2050-2060 yuan / ton, the northern line quotes 2020-2060 yuan / ton, the low end is stable, at present, some production enterprises are actively shipping, some quotations are firm, the transaction is relatively smooth, the freight rate continues to rise due to fewer vehicles in the field, and we need to pay attention to the operation of the plant in the field in the later stage. Consumer market prices rose partially, of which southern Shandong 2400-2410 yuan / ton, low-end raised 40 yuan / ton, northern Shandong 2360-2380 yuan / ton, low-end stable, the current market trading is slightly cautious, the trading atmosphere is general. The price in North China has been raised, including 2220-2270 yuan / ton in Shanxi, 50 yuan / ton in the low end, and 2300 yuan / ton in Hebei, which is stable at the low end, and the market supply is tight. The price in southwest China has been partially raised, of which Yunnan and Guizhou quoted 2170-2280 yuan / ton, the low end is stable, Sichuan and Chongqing quoted 2150-2250 yuan / ton, and the low end increased by 10 yuan / ton. at present, the negotiation atmosphere is good and the transaction is OK. Quotations in other regions of China have also been adjusted to varying degrees.

Port market: methanol futures fell in late trading after shocks today. Spot price sales, on-demand purchase. Long-term intraday unilateral high shipments, arbitrage buying; after falling unilateral delivery increased, the basis is slightly stronger. The overall deal was average. Taicang main port transaction price: 8 transaction price: 2350-2365, base difference 09-15 deal: 2345-2365, base difference 09-10 deal 8 deal: 2360-2380, base difference 09-5 pm transaction 9 transaction: 2385-2410, basis difference 09-25 pound 30.

Future forecast: the recent international good news is released frequently to boost the market, and the spot quotation runs with the rise in the market. At present, Hebi Coal Chemical, Central Plains Dahua, Henan Zhongxin and other devices have gradually recovered and stabilized their products, and China's supply has increased steadily. In addition, inventory performance is narrow in the Chinese market cycle, supply continues to be negative in the face of methanol market, and from the demand side, the traditional downstream demand changes little. During the load increase of olefin units such as Zhongtian Hechuang and Luxi in Shandong Province, Shenhua Yulin 600000 ton olefin plant storage and maintenance plan, the overall boost of downstream olefin demand is limited, and in the later stage, attention should be paid to the load change of olefin plant in the field and the influence of weather factors. In the port market, up to now, the inventory performance in the port area is different, and the unloading speed in East China is affected by the typhoon weather, which leads to the obvious removal of the warehouse, while in South China, although the pick-up speed is good, imports and domestic trade vessels arrive at the port during the week, and the unloading speed is good, so the performance is tired. At present, the macro news is positive, the performance of the methanol market is strong, while the fundamental performance continues to be poor, the cautious mood of the operators in the market remains, and it is expected that the price of methanol market will be arranged in a narrow range in the short term. in the later stage, we also need to pay close attention to the macro view, coal prices and the operation of the plant in the field.