PVC: Futures prices rose significantly during the intraday session. Ningxia carried out research and supervision on dual control of energy consumption, and spot adjustments frequently turned upward.

115,722

August 2, 2023, 4:42 PM

PVC futures analysis: August 2 V2309 contract opening price: 6218, highest price: 6322, lowest price: 6201, position: 577883, settlement price: 6258, yesterday settlement: 6248, up: 10, daily trading volume: 849915 lots, precipitated capital: 2.543 billion, capital outflow: 102 million.

List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton

Area	Price 8.1	Price 8.2	Rise and fall	Remarks
North China	5960-6100	6040-6130	80/30	Send to cash remittance
East China	6050-6130	6080-6180	30/50	Cash out of the warehouse
South China	6170-6220	6180-6240	10/20	Cash out of the warehouse
Northeast China	5850-6050	5900-6100	50/50	Send to cash remittance
Central China	6070-6120	6070-6120	0/0	Send to cash remittance
Southwest	5900-6100	5900-6100	0/0	Send to cash remittance

PVC spot market: China PVC market mainstream transaction price center of gravity moves upward, spot price adjustment is frequent. From the comparison of valuation: among them, North China rose 30-80 yuan / ton, East China increased 30-50 yuan / ton, South China rose 10-20 yuan / ton, Northeast China rose 50 yuan / ton, and Central China and Southwest China were stable. The ex-factory quotations of upstream production enterprises continue to be stable and have not been adjusted with the rise and fall of the market, only a few enterprises with lower previous quotations raised their quotations slightly today. The futures price was weak before and after strong, resulting in both spot price and spot price offer in the spot market, and the all-day spot price offer diverged, the early offer was on the low side and the one-mouthed price offer was slightly lower than that of yesterday, and then the intraday price rose obviously. the spot price was adjusted to recover some of the decline. There is little adjustment in the basis offer, including 09 contract in East China-(150-180), 09 contract in South China-(50-80), 09 contract in North China-(450-570), and 09 contract in Southwest China-(290-300). On the whole, there is a certain rigid demand for today's low price, but mostly small orders.

From the perspective of futures: the night price of the nbsp; PVC09 contract reached its lowest point at the beginning of trading, and then the futures price ran in a relatively low and narrow range. After the start of early trading, the intraday price rose on the basis of volatility, and the upward range significantly broke through the 6300 mark, while the afternoon price fluctuated at a relatively high level. 2309 contracts range from 6201 to 6322 throughout the day, with a spread of 121 minus 2309 contracts with a reduction of 27348 positions to 577883 positions so far. The 2401 contract closed at 6332, with 270884 positions.

PVC Future Forecast:

Futures: PVC09 contract futures from the intraday operating range, there is little difference compared with the Tuesday range, but the trajectory shows an obvious reverse trend. Tuesday futures open high and low, futures prices go down, but today Wednesday's opening is a low price and then the price goes up obviously. Break through the high point. Candle chart shows a positive column, the technical level shows that the Bollinger belt (13, 13, 2) three-track opening expanded, two consecutive days of reverse price trend, MACD still continues to show a golden fork trend, the daily line is still good. However, under the current time stage, the market of changing positions and changing months has a greater risk and the trend of volatility expansion in recent months, so the new positions are cautious to participate in paying more attention to 01 contracts. In the short term, we believe that the futures price will continue to be high and wide, and continue to observe the performance in the range of 6200-6350.

Spot: expects the prices of the two cities to reverse for two consecutive days, and the current prices of the two cities are extremely vulnerable to policies and message ports. On the morning of August 2, Ningxia launched a special investigation and supervision on energy consumption double control, in order to conscientiously implement the requirements of the regional party committee and government's energy consumption double control work, and promote the completion of the annual energy consumption double control target. From July 27 to 28, the Development and Reform Commission of Ningxia Autonomous region, together with the Department of Industry and Information Technology, the Bureau of Statistics, the State Grid Ningxia Electric Power Company and industry experts, conducted a special investigation and supervision on Shizuishan City, where the energy consumption intensity increased instead of decreasing in the first half of the year. The market of the two markets has been moved by the wind, coupled with the fact that there is a certain multi-single resistance in the futures market after the technical correction, which leads to frequent price adjustment and capricious rise and fall. The spot market also has more price adjustments during the week, but according to the feedback of most merchants, the current shipment is still not good, the contract signing is not active, and traders also bear greater sales pressure under high prices, and there is no obvious willingness to receive goods in the downstream terminals. at present, the demand for replenishment is only heating up. Therefore, in the short term, spot market prices will continue to frequently adjust narrow operation.

PVC spread arbitrage analysis:

Arbitrage Analysis of PVC spread
PVC	Contract price difference	8.1	8.2	Rate of change
	V2309 collection	6242	6286	44
	Average spot price in East China	6090	6130	40
	Average spot price in South China	6195	6210	15
	PVC2309 basis difference	-152	-156	-4
	V2401 collection	6289	6332	43
	V2309-2401 closed	-47	-46	1
	PP2309 collection	7461	7463	2
	Plastic L2309 collection	8208	8255	47
	V--PP basis difference	-1219	-1177	42
	Vmure-L basis difference of plastics	-1966	-1969	-3

China PVC Index: according to Tuduoduo data, China calcium Carbide PVC spot index rose 29.71, or 0.488%, to 6114.39 on August 2. The PVC spot index of ethylene method is 6533.16, down 0%, the range is 0%, the index of calcium carbide method is down, the index of ethylene method is stable, and the price difference between ethylene method and calcium carbide method is 418.77.

PVC warehouse receipt daily:

Variety	Warehouse / branch warehouse	8.1 warehouse receipt quantity	8.2 warehouse orders	change
Polyvinyl chloride	China Reserve shares	180	180	0
Polyvinyl chloride	China Central Reserve Nanjing	180	180	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang International Trade	1,762	1,762	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Peak supply chain	800	800	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangyin Xiefeng	609	609	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Benniu Port, Changzhou	2,647	2,647	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Zhengsheng	1,521	1,521	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Yanjin	1,755	1,755	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Benniu Port)	298	298	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Zhejiang International Trade)	149	149	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Benniu Port)	900	900	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Railway Changxing)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Yongan Capital (Benniu Port)	1,200	1,200	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty petrochemical (Benniu Port)	2,399	2,399	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty Petrochemical (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,302	1,302	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sino-Thai Duojing (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,238	1,238	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Tiantai International Trade (Benniu Port)	260	260	0
PVC subtotal		17,320	17,320	0
Total		17,320	17,320	0