Methanol: Strong futures market pulls up, Chinese prices rise simultaneously

On August 1st, the market price index of methanol was 2199.25, up 23.15% from yesterday and 1.06% higher than yesterday.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on July 31:

China CFR US $260-265USD / ton, Ping

European FOB 214.25-216.25 euros / ton, up 2 euros / ton

Us FOB 65-67 cents per gallon, flat

Southeast Asia CFR 284-286 US dollars per ton, flat. & nbsp;                            

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2130-2170 (80), South: 2050-2060 (0), North: 2020-2060 (- 10), Lunan: 2360 (0), Henan: 2280-2335 (35), Shanxi: 2170-2335 (10), Port: 22952340 (50)

Freight:

North Route-Northern Shandong 240-320 (0ax 20), Southern Route-Northern Shandong 250-310 (0max 0), Shanxi-Northern Shandong 120-180 (10max 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 190-260 (- 20max 10)

Spot market: today, the price of methanol market rises, and the price fluctuation range of the spot market is 10-70 yuan / ton. under the support of macro-good, the futures market fluctuates upwards, the basis stabilizes on the strong side, the port spot transaction is OK, and the Chinese market rises synchronously. The overall shipment is relatively smooth, and the market transaction atmosphere is good. Specifically, the market prices in the main producing areas are mixed, and the price is quoted on the southern route today. 2050-2060 yuan / ton, the low end is stable, the north line quotes 2020-2060 yuan / ton, and the low end is reduced by 10 yuan / ton. at present, the supply in the field is gradually restored, some enterprises ship more smoothly, the downstream rigid demand is mainly, and the enthusiasm of buying is OK. In the later stage, we also need to pay attention to the operation of the equipment in the field. Consumer market prices rose, of which southern Shandong 2360 yuan / ton, low-end stability, northern Shandong 2360-2380 yuan / ton, low-end upward increase of 60 yuan / ton, the current market trading is slightly cautious, the trading atmosphere is general. Today's market bidding price is around 2360-2370 yuan / ton, including Shenchi chemical methanol bidding price of 2370 yuan / ton, Oriental Hualong 2360 yuan / ton, Lihuayi 2370 yuan / ton. Price increases in North China, including 2170-2290 yuan / ton in Shanxi, 10 yuan / ton in the low end, 2300 yuan / ton in Hebei, 30 yuan / ton in the low end, stable market trading, tightened supply in the market, and firm quotations from manufacturers. Quotations in other regions of China have also been adjusted to varying degrees.

Port market: methanol futures fluctuated upwards today. Spot rigid demand negotiation. Long-term paper goods every high shipment, arbitrage-based, moderate price transaction, the basis stabilized. Transactions are active throughout the day. Taicang main port transaction price: spot transaction: 2295-2325, base difference 09-20 swap: 2300-2340, base difference 09-15 bot 8 in transaction: 2305-2355, base difference 09-10 Universe 5 deal 8 deal: 2305-2355, base difference 09-8 ram 0Tracy 9 transaction: 2340-2380, basis difference 09-20 pm 25.

Future forecast: recent coal price stabilization is weak, cost support is limited, affected by heavy rainfall, daily consumption of some power plants decreases, coal procurement enthusiasm weakens, short-term coal prices may be stable, but supported by macro-good news, futures market shocks strengthen, methanol market rises synchronously, Zhongyuan Dahua is smoothly out of the product, load is rising, Ningxia Kunpeng new plant parking maintenance, supply side has not changed significantly for the time being. In the later period, there are still plant inventory recovery expectations, superimposing the impact of typhoon weather on local logistics, inventory or accumulation in some areas, demand side, the start-up of traditional downstream products has increased, the profit from methanol to olefin has rebounded, the load of some olefin units has increased and the overall demand is recovering slowly, but the recent typhoon weather has affected the downstream construction in some areas, and the downstream demand has been affected to a certain extent. In the later stage, we should also pay attention to the load change of olefin plant in the field and the influence of typhoon weather on plant start-up and logistics. At present, the macro aspect is good to support the market, the fundamentals of methanol have not been significantly improved for the time being, and the cautious mood of the operators in the market is still there. It is expected that the price of methanol in the short term will be arranged in a narrow range. In the later stage, we need to pay close attention to the macro view, coal prices and the operation of the plant in the field.