[Ethanol Daily Review]: China's ethanol market trends on August 1

The price index of general-grade ethanol was 6179.25 on August 1st, which was stable compared with the previous working day.

China's ethanol market maintains a steady trend. Hot spots on August 1: first, Henan excellent prices are stable. Second, prices in East China are stable. Third, the price in Northeast China is stable, and the price of no water in Jilin factory has been reduced by 50 yuan / ton. Fourth, the bidding price of ethyl acetate is stable. Fifth, the price of fuel ethanol is stable, and it is difficult for large factories to load vehicles.

Specifically, the food price of the big factory in Heilongjiang in Northeast China is stable, and it is difficult to load fuel. Jilin big factory waterless transaction is weak, the price is reduced by 50 yuan / ton. The price of ethanol in Mengzhou area of Henan Province is stable, and individual enterprises deliver orders after price increases. East China price is stable, early order purchase. Coal ethanol: the price of individual coal ethanol is stable. The price of fuel ethanol remains stable. Northeast enterprise Jilin market general grade quotation 6400-6450 yuan / ton. The general grade of Heilongjiang market is 6250-6400 yuan / ton, Heilongjiang anhydrous market is 6950-7100 yuan / ton, and Jilin anhydrous market is 7000-7200 yuan / ton. The northeast closing position is about 6600-6650 yuan / ton. The superior enterprises in Central China offer 6450-6500 yuan / ton, and the water-free price is 7400-7450 yuan / ton. The price of ethanol in East China is 6500-6550 yuan / ton. The price of anhydrous ethanol is 7300-7400 yuan / ton, and the general price in southern Jiangsu is 6750-6800 yuan / ton. Cassava ethanol 6700-6900 yuan / ton in Guangxi, South China.

& nbsp;                                     unit: yuan / ton

Raw materials / by-products and downstream

Unit: yuan / ton, US dollar / ton

Future forecast: short-term price regional trend is expected, short-term prices in Northeast China are stable, orders are delivered, fuel prices are strong, enterprises are more active in fuel production, start-up enterprises mainly produce fuel, orders are delivered by large factories, and inventory is low. in addition, the equipment of the big factory will soon be overhauled and the news surface support price will remain strong. The price in Henan area may be slightly driven by the factory if it can be overhauled on schedule. General-grade shipments in East China are general. Four factories will resume in August, and the supply side is bad for the price trend. On the demand side, the equipment of large chemical plants resumes the increase in ethanol consumption. However, the market has heard that individual ethyl acetate plants in East China have maintenance plans at the end of August. Methyl ethyl ester plants are expected to be put into production in August, increasing anhydrous ethanol consumption, but the overall demand is limited. It is expected that the East China price consolidation operation or transaction low-end price tamping. The increase in fuel ethanol is greater than the decrease in August, and it is expected that four enterprises will start work and two will be overhauled, but it will take time for enterprises to increase their inventory from start-up to delivery, short-term delivery by large factories is tight, prices remain stable, and shipments of coal-based ethanol are weak, which does not rule out the possibility of price adjustment, affecting part of the market mentality. Some refineries in the lower reaches will ease in the short term due to the increase of inventory due to the concentration of goods, and the prices of two oil are expected to be stable.

Raw materials: corn ethanol: corn prices are stable, the current ddgs prices rise parallel products to maintain high volatility, increased demand for pigs, and ethanol plant maintenance supply reduced good news support. Cassava dry aspect: enterprise rigid demand procurement, Thailand is willing to raise the price is obvious, cassava dry inventory sales are expected short-term cassava dry price high finishing.

Supply: northeast start: Dongning shutdown, Baoquanling shutdown, Fuyu Huihai normal, COFCO Zhaodong plant restored, Wanli plant restored, Hongzhan 4 factories normal, Heilongjiang Shenglong shutdown; Fukang device normal, Tianyu shutdown, Shuntong shutdown, Dongfeng Huafeng downtime, Xintianlong normal, Liniu shutdown. Huadong Huatian half-load production, Guannan shutdown, Jin Changlin downtime, Guohua production, Changxing downtime, Longhe shutdown, sul shutdown, Fulaichun shutdown, Maibo Huihui shutdown, MINUSTAH production. Enterprises in Mengzhou, Henan Province maintain half of the load. Jufeng production. Chifeng Ruiyang production, Zalantun production. Jilin fuel rotation inspection, Guotou Tieling shutdown.

Demand: downstream chemical rigid demand procurement. Liquor order purchase.

Logistics: logistics price is stable.

Equipment maintenance table of Chinese ethanol enterprises

Remarks: all estimated downtime and production capacity are subject to the specific downtime of the factory.