PVC: The futures price fell twice during the intraday session, technical backtesting repaired the middle track, and the focus of spot market transactions moved downward

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August 1, 2023, 4:24 PM

PVC futures analysis: August 1st V2309 contract opening price: 6310, highest price: 6310, lowest price: 6202, position: 605321, settlement price: 6248, yesterday settlement: 6311, down: 63, daily trading volume: 867802 lots, precipitated capital: 2.645 billion, capital outflow: 142 million.

List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton

Area	Price 7.31	Price 8.1	Rise and fall	Remarks
North China	6010-6100	5960-6100	-50/0	Send to cash remittance
East China	6100-6180	6050-6130	-50/-50	Cash out of the warehouse
South China	6180-6250	6170-6220	-10/-30	Cash out of the warehouse
Northeast China	5900-6100	5850-6050	-50/-50	Send to cash remittance
Central China	6070-6120	6070-6120	0/0	Send to cash remittance
Southwest	5900-6100	5900-6100	0/0	Send to cash remittance

PVC spot market: China PVC market mainstream transaction prices slightly lower, traders offer lower. From the comparison of valuation, it fell 50 yuan / ton in North China, 50 yuan / ton in East China, 10-30 yuan / ton in South China, 50 yuan / ton in Northeast China, and stable in Central China and Southwest China. Most of the factory quotations of upstream production enterprises are stable, and there is no obvious adjustment movement. the first generation of contracts are mainly based on basic quantity, and some traders sign orders. Futures market downward volatility weakened, traders in the morning part of the price offer slightly lower than yesterday, and the basis offer part is slightly stronger, with the futures price downside point part of the supply part has a price advantage, including East China basis offer 09 contract-(150-180), South China 09 contract-(50-100), North 09 contract-(450-580), Southwest 09 contract-(290-300). The price decline of the two cities did not lead to an improvement in the transaction, on the contrary, the actual order is on the high side, the price is difficult to close the deal, the current purchasing enthusiasm in the lower reaches is not high, and some low prices in the lower reaches hang orders, so as a whole, the spot market is lukewarm.

From the perspective of futures: & the night price of the nbsp; PVC09 contract opens high and goes low, and the futures price goes down at the beginning of the session. The late morning opening price was fluctuated on the basis of night trading, but then fell twice late in the morning, hitting a low point of 6202 and then a small upside repair, but the increase was relatively small between 30 and 40 points. 2309 contracts range from 6202 to 6310 throughout the day, with a spread of 108. 2309. The contract reduced its position by 27523 positions and has held 605321 positions so far. The 2401 contract closed at 6289, with 266180 positions.

PVC Future Forecast:

Futures: & the intraday price trend of nbsp; PVC09 contract futures showed a technical correction trend as we predicted, and the upward pressure level of futures prices began to weaken after refreshing the recent high of 6360. 09 contracts continue to reduce positions and exit funds withdrawal, and more than 26.2% compared with 24.4%, tend to part of the multi-single profit-taking, or early positions in the long list to continue to reduce positions. From the current time node, the change of positions is gradually put on the agenda, and it is suggested that the new positions should pay more attention to the trend of 01 contracts. The downward technical level of the futures price shows the upward or downward trend of the Bollinger belt (13, 13, 2) three tracks, the candle chart shows a negative column and the lower lead is longer, and the downward price of the futures price causes some single resistance. We continue to maintain the previous view that the low price reaches the first support level of the MA combination line, and in the short term, the futures price may continue to winding up and down 6250 points, observing the performance in the range of 6160-6310.

Spot aspect: & the downward price of nbsp; futures makes the spot market basis part strengthen, especially in East and South China, the basis offer is active today, but most of the real orders tend to hang low, some rigid demand is closed, the speculative demand disappears after the price decline of the two cities, and some traders consider hedging 01 contracts. From the perspective of the contract situation, the 2401 contract increases positions down 25.4% compared with 19.5% more. With the passage of time, 09 contracts will gradually end, so 09 contracts are more vulnerable to news and policy ports in the market for changing positions, and become more volatile, as is the case in the spot market. Today's spot market performance as we said yesterday, there is a pullback pressure, but the current range is small. PVC fundamental variables have not been many, market rumors of the resumption of American chlor-alkali enterprises have not been confirmed, but no matter what fundamental variables shake the current term of the two cities less. Crude oil prices hit a three-month high as global supply is expected to tighten for the rest of the year and demand will grow. On the whole, in the short term, the spot market or narrow-band consolidation is the main.

PVC spread arbitrage analysis:

Arbitrage Analysis of PVC spread
PVC	Contract price difference	7.31	8.1	Rate of change
	V2309 collection	6291	6242	-49
	Average spot price in East China	6140	6090	-50
	Average spot price in South China	6215	6195	-20
	PVC2309 basis difference	-151	-152	-1
	V2401 collection	6315	6289	-26
	V2309-2401 closed	-24	-47	-23
	PP2309 collection	7448	7461	13
	Plastic L2309 collection	8222	8208	-14
	V--PP basis difference	-1157	-1219	-62
	Vmure-L basis difference of plastics	-1931	-1966	-35

China PVC Index: according to Tuduoduo data, the Chinese calcium carbide PVC spot index was 6084.68, disc 27.59, with a range of 0.451%. The ethylene PVC spot index was 6533.16, down 24.02, or 0.366%. The calcium carbide index fell, the ethylene index fell, and the ethylene-calcium carbide index spread was 448.48.

PVC warehouse receipt daily:

Variety	Warehouse / branch warehouse	7.31 warehouse orders	8.1 warehouse receipt quantity	change
Polyvinyl chloride	China Reserve shares	0	180	180
Polyvinyl chloride	China Central Reserve Nanjing	0	180	180
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang International Trade	1,634	1,762	128
Polyvinyl chloride	Peak supply chain	800	800	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangyin Xiefeng	609	609	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Benniu Port, Changzhou	2,586	2,647	61
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Zhengsheng	1,521	1,521	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Yanjin	1,755	1,755	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Benniu Port)	298	298	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Zhejiang International Trade)	149	149	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Benniu Port)	900	900	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Railway Changxing)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Yongan Capital (Benniu Port)	1,200	1,200	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty petrochemical (Benniu Port)	2,399	2,399	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty Petrochemical (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,302	1,302	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sino-Thai Duojing (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,238	1,238	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Tiantai International Trade (Benniu Port)	260	260	0
PVC subtotal		16,951	17,320	369
Total		16,951	17,320	369