Daily review of urea: Shandong prices fell by 120 yuan/ton, and so it fell?! (July 31)

 China Urea Price Index:

According to Feiduo data, the urea small pellet price index on July 31 was 2,522.27, down 35 from last Friday, down 1.37% month-on-month, and up 2.76% year-on-year.

Urea futures market:

The price of the urea UR2309 contract opened higher and lower today. The early opening price immediately fell from the intraday high of 2349. After that, the futures price continued to fluctuate and fell to the lowest point of 2294 in the late session. In the afternoon, the futures price rebounded within a narrow range and continued to fluctuate, closing at 2322 in the late session. The opening price of the Urea UR2309 contract: 2349, the highest price: 2349, the lowest price: 2294, the settlement price: 2317, the closing price: 2322. The closing price dropped by 20% compared with the settlement price of the previous trading day, and the month-on-month decline was 0.85%. The daily fluctuation range was 2294-2349, and the spread was 55; The 09 contract reduced its position by 28826 lots today, and so far, it held 235530 lots.

Spot market analysis:

At the beginning of the week, China's urea spot market prices fell across the board. Among them, mainstream quotations in Shandong fell by 120 yuan/ton to 2500 yuan/ton, and quotations in most regions fell by 20-90 yuan/ton. As downstream demand decreases, factories mainly issue advance orders, new order transactions decrease, high price support is insufficient, and the market has lowered quotations one after another. Specifically, prices in Northeast China fell to 2,230 - 2,270 yuan/ton. Prices in North China fell to 2,280 - 2,630 yuan/ton. Prices in the northwest region have stabilized at 2,610 - 2,620 yuan/ton. Prices in Southwest China are stable at 2,450 - 3,000 yuan/ton. Prices in East China fell to 2,500 - 2,620 yuan/ton. The price of small and medium-sized particles in Central China fell to 2,510 - 2,650 yuan/ton, and the price of large particles fell to 2,600 - 2,650 yuan/ton. Prices in South China fell to 2,700 - 2,740 yuan/ton.

Market outlook forecast:

In terms of futures, futures prices fell today, and the two markets fell one after another. Fundamentally speaking, the supply industry has maintained a high level of start-ups, with a daily output of more than 170,000 tons, and supply pressure is gradually emerging. On the demand side, agricultural demand has entered a gap, factory new orders transactions have decreased, and downstream continues to need procurement; on the demand side, compound fertilizer factories and plywood factories have maintained appropriate replenishment, and overall demand is weakening. In the last cycle, prices in the two markets moved towards high levels, and stamp prices and trading volume were called the key factors determining the trend of China's market. The emotional aspect is only a short-term impact. In the end, it is still market supply and demand that affect the market. Therefore, we will continue to pay attention to the implementation of the printing and labeling news, and it is expected that the urea market will consolidate in the short term.