Methanol: Futures rebound after falling, China's trading atmosphere is mixed

On July 31, the market price index of methanol was 2176.1, which was 12.49 higher than that of the previous working day and 0.58% higher than that of the previous working day.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on July 28:

China CFR US $260-265USD / ton, Ping

European FOB 212.25-214.25 euros / ton, up 1.50 euros / ton

Us FOB 65-67 cents per gallon, flat

Southeast Asian CFR 284-286 US dollars / ton, down 5 US dollars / ton.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2090-2100 (0), South: 2050-2060 (0), North: 2030-2060 (30), Lunan: 2360 (60), Henan: 2245-2270 (25), Shanxi: 2160-2220 (0), Port: 22452260 (10)

Freight:

North Route-Northern Shandong 240-300 (30ax 10), Southern Route-Northern Shandong 250-310 (10ax 10), Shanxi-Northern Shandong 110-180 (10ax 10), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 210-250 (0max 0)

Spot market: today, methanol market prices rose in a narrow range, spot market prices fluctuated by 10-60 yuan / ton, futures rebounded after falling, basis maintained stability, port spot maintained rigid demand, methanol fundamentals performed poorly, and under the influence of macro positive sentiment, prices in some parts of the Chinese market were strong, and transaction sentiment was slightly different. Specifically, the market price in the main producing areas has been partially raised, and the price is quoted on the southern route today. 2050-2060 yuan / ton, the low end is stable, the north line quotation is 2030-2060 yuan / ton, the low end is raised by 30 yuan / ton, of which Shaanxi Changqing methanol is quoted this week: 2150 yuan / ton for 2000 tons, 2160 yuan / ton for more than 2000 tons and 2160 yuan / ton. The 600000-ton methanol plant in the plant is in half-load operation. at present, although some units resume production and delivery, the inventory of some enterprises is still low, and the manufacturers sell at a higher price, and the enthusiasm of buying and buying is still acceptable. In the later stage, we also need to pay attention to the operation of the plant in the field. Consumer market prices have risen, including 2360 yuan / ton in southern Shandong, 60 yuan / ton in the low end, 2300-2400 yuan / ton in northern Shandong, and 30 yuan / ton in the low end. At present, trading on the floor is slightly cautious, the trading atmosphere is general, and more wait and see at the beginning of the week. Prices in North China are stable, including 2160-2220 yuan / ton in Shanxi and 2270-2300 yuan / ton in Hebei, maintaining the previous working day, the center of gravity of the market is stable, and manufacturers ship goods at a reasonable price. Quotations in other regions of China have also been adjusted to varying degrees.

Port market: methanol futures rebounded after falling today. Spot rigid demand negotiation. Long-term high shipments are limited, unilateral low enquiries, the morning basis stabilized, afternoon buying improved, the basis strengthened, the price center of gravity moved up with the futures. The whole-day deal is OK. Taicang main port transaction price: spot transaction: 2245-2270, base difference 09-25 picture20 city8 transaction: 2255-2265, base difference 09-20 Universe 15 transaction 8 transaction price: 2255-2285, base difference 09-10 Dynamax transaction 9 transaction: 2285-2300, basis difference 09-25 Universe 30.

Forecast in the future: the coal price is weak and stable in the near future, and the cost support is limited, but under the influence of macro-positive factors, the methanol market is slightly strong. at present, with the resumption of production of some units, the supply in China has increased, and the inventory of enterprises in the field has increased. It has a certain negative impact on the methanol market, and there are still plans to restore the plant in the later stage, superimposing the impact of typhoon weather on logistics. China's inventory may continue to accumulate, from a demand point of view. The start-up of traditional downstream products has increased in varying degrees, the demand has increased, the profit from methanol to olefin has been slightly increased, the load of olefin units in Yangmei Hengsheng and Luxi, Shandong Province has increased, Luqing and Jincheng have resumed external mining, and the overall downstream demand is slowly recovering. in the later stage, we should also pay attention to the load changes of olefin units in the field and the impact of typhoon weather on logistics. At present, the macro outlook is good, the cost support is weakened, the supply expectation is expected to increase, the demand side is synchronously increased, the cautious sentiment of the operators in the market is still there, and the short-term methanol market price is expected to be arranged in a narrow range. In the later stage, we also need to pay close attention to the macro view, coal prices and the operation of the plant in the field.