Methanol: The methanol period is now rising simultaneously, transactions in the Chinese market are 1

On July 28, the methanol market price index was 2163.61, up 2.95 from yesterday, up 0.14% from a month earlier.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on July 27:

China CFR US $260-265USD / ton, Ping

European FOB 210.75-212.75 euros / ton, up 8 euros / ton

Us FOB 65-67 cents per gallon, flat

Southeast Asia CFR 292.5-294.5 US dollars / ton, flat.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2090-2100 (0), South: 2050-2060 (0), North: 2000-2060 (0), Lunan: 2300 (0), Henan: 2220-2235 (10), Shanxi: 2160-2220 (0), Port: 22352270 (0)

Freight:

North Route-Northern Shandong 200-290 (10thumb 0), Southern Route-Northern Shandong 230-290 (0max 0), Shanxi-Northern Shandong 100-170 (0max 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 210-250 (0max 0)

Spot market: today, the price of methanol has risen steadily, the price fluctuation range of the spot market is 5-40 yuan / ton, the volatility of the futures market is strong, the basis is weak, the port spot maintains rigid demand, and the fundamentals of methanol have not been significantly improved. prices in some parts of the Chinese market are strong, the market atmosphere is slightly deadlocked, and the transaction is general. Specifically, the market price in the main producing areas remains stable, and the price is quoted on the southern route today. So far, the bidding price in today's market revolves around 2310-2340 yuan / ton, including 2330 yuan / ton for Shenchi Chemical methanol, 2310 yuan / ton for Oriental Hualong and 2340 yuan / ton for Luqing Chemical Industry. The price in North China is stable, including 2160-2220 yuan / ton in Shanxi and 2270-2300 yuan / ton in Hebei, the low end is stable, the center of gravity of the market is stable, and the manufacturers ship goods at a reasonable price. Quotations in other regions of China have also been adjusted to varying degrees.

Port market: today, methanol futures volatility is strong. Spot rigid demand negotiations, the basis is weaker. Long-term fluctuations with futures, unilateral high sell low suction, choose the opportunity to close the deal, the basis is slightly weaker. The monthly difference between far and near has widened, and the overall transaction is OK. Taicang main port transaction price: spot transaction: 2240-2270, base difference 09-30 picture20 better8 deal: 2245-2275, base difference 09-15 Universe Melody 10 transaction 8 transaction: 2260-2280, base difference 09-15 Mobility 10 transaction 8 transaction: 2260-2295, base difference 09-12 Universe 8 Tran 9: 2300-2325, basis difference 09-20 Universe 2210-1510.

Future forecast: cost: the recent coal price is weak and stable, the cost support is limited, due to the typhoon weather, the daily consumption of power plants is reduced, the procurement of downstream and traders slows, some coal mines lower their quotations, and short-term coal prices are expected to fluctuate in a narrow range. On the supply side: at present, a number of maintenance devices have been restored one after another, Chongqing Cabelle, New Austria Phase I, Hebi Coal Chemical and Central Plains Dahua have been restarted, and the overall supply of the Chinese market has increased. In August, some devices are still planned to restart, and supply is expected to continue to increase. Demand: the profit situation of some enterprises in the traditional downstream is good, but the overall demand is still not significantly improved. In terms of olefins, the recent 600000-ton olefin plant in Yulin, China Coal, and the supporting 2 million-ton methanol plant are overhauled synchronously. The overall demand of the downstream olefin industry does not change much. In the later stage, we need to pay attention to the load change and operation of the olefin plant in the field. At present, the macro outlook is good, the fundamentals are general, China's supply increases steadily, while the demand boost is limited, the mindset of the market operators is unstable, they are mainly cautious about the future, and it is expected that the methanol market price will be arranged in a narrow range in the short term. in the later stage, we also need to pay close attention to the macro view, coal prices and the operation of the plant in the field.