Daily Review of Urea: Futures prices closed at the end of the day and the spot market rose after a stalemate (July 26)

China Urea Price Index:

According to Feiduo data, the urea small pellet price index on July 26 was 2,451.05, up 43.18 from yesterday, up 1.79% month-on-month, and down 2.56% year-on-year.

Urea futures market:

The price of the urea UR2309 contract opened higher today, and the rally continued to ferment. The price first reached a low of 2231 at the opening of early trading, and then continued to rise, hitting the daily limit before noon. In the afternoon, the market futures price rebounded within a narrow range, reaching the intraday high of 2335, and then rose to a daily limit again, closing at 2335 at the end. The opening price of the Urea UR2309 contract: 2267, the highest price: 2335, the lowest price: 2231, the settlement price: 2302, the closing price: 2335. The closing price increased by 173 compared with the settlement price of the previous trading day, and the month-on-month increase by 8.00%. The daily fluctuation range is 2231-2335, and the spread is 104; the 09 contract has reduced its position by 11994 lots today, and has held 293895 lots so far.

Spot market analysis:

Today, China's urea spot market prices have risen across the board, with price increases ranging from 10 to 150 yuan/ton in various regions. At present, China's spot supply of urea is loose, agricultural demand on the demand side is gradually entering a gap, and the demand for compound fertilizer industry is likely to be released in large quantities until late August. The demand for melamine and plywood also remains weak. Overall, terminal demand has slowed down. Specifically, prices in Northeast China rose to 2,190 - 2,290 yuan/ton. Prices in North China rose to 2,240 - 2,460 yuan/ton. Prices in Northwest China rose to 2,510 - 2,520 yuan/ton. Prices in Southwest China are stable at 2,350 - 3,000 yuan/ton. Prices in East China rose to 2,400 - 2,470 yuan/ton. The price of small and medium-sized particles in Central China rose to 2,410 - 2,600 yuan/ton, and the price of large particles rose to 2,380 - 2,580 yuan/ton. Prices in South China rose to 2,580 - 2,680 yuan/ton.

Market outlook forecast:

Today's futures prices rose at a daily limit, and news of strengthening international prices came out one after another. Market sentiment also rose. Driven by a positive atmosphere, China's spot prices rose after several days of deadlock. Fundamentally speaking, the supply side industry has maintained a high level of start-ups. Some units have been stopped for a short period of time, accompanied by the recovery of some units, and the daily output has returned to about 170,000 tons. In the long run, some enterprises in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia have maintenance plans in August, and the industry may be reduced within a narrow range at the later stage of construction. In terms of demand, agricultural demand is gradually moving towards the off-season, with conservatively speaking a gap of about one month. Short-term agricultural demand is difficult to be optimistic; in terms of labor demand, downstream compound fertilizer factories and plywood factories maintain appropriate replenishment, and overall demand is weakening. Internationally, the rise in global grain prices during the week led to an increase in international urea prices, and India's new round of tenders boosted China's export expectations. On the whole, it is expected that urea prices will continue to consolidate and operate in the near future, and low prices will tend to make up.