Daily Review of Urea: Futures markets rise again Spot prices are mixed (July 25)

China Urea Price Index:

According to Feiduo data, the urea small pellet price index on July 25 was 2,407.86, down 3.05 from yesterday, down 0.13% month-on-month, and down 5.25% year-on-year.

Urea futures market:

The price of the urea UR2309 contract continued to rise today. The futures price fluctuated to the intraday low of 2112 after the opening of early trading, and then continued to rise. In the afternoon, the futures price fluctuated at a high level. After reaching the intraday high of 2200, it fell within a narrow range and closed at 2184 in the late session. The opening price of the Urea UR2309 contract: 2127, the highest price: 2200, the lowest price: 2112, the settlement price: 2162, and the closing price: 2184. The closing price increased by 77 compared with the settlement price of the previous trading day, and the month-on-month increase by 3.65%. The daily fluctuation range is 2112-2200, and the spread is 77; The 09 contract increased its position by 17953 lots today, and so far, it has held 305889 lots.

Spot market analysis:

Today, China's urea spot market prices are mixed, and the fluctuations in spot prices in various regions remain at 10-30 yuan/ton. Overall, there is currently appropriate replenishment in and downstream of the market, but the actual demand has begun to weaken, and most traders enter the market speculatively. During the week, urea advance receipts fell within a narrow range, and supply fluctuated within a narrow range due to the shutdown of equipment. As the international market is still rising, it will boost the mentality of the Chinese market. Specifically, prices in Northeast China have stabilized at 2,170 - 2,260 yuan/ton. Prices in North China have stabilized at 2,220 - 2,400 yuan/ton. Prices in Northwest China fell to 2,390 - 2,400 yuan/ton. Prices in Southwest China are stable at 2,350 - 3,000 yuan/ton. Prices in East China rose to 2,360 - 2,430 yuan/ton. The price of small and medium-sized particles in Central China has stabilized at 2,360 - 2,560 yuan/ton, and the price of large particles has stabilized at 2,380 - 2,420 yuan/ton. Prices in South China rose to 2,530 - 2,620 yuan/ton.

Market outlook forecast:

In terms of futures, futures prices continued to rise today, and positive sentiment drove the spot market to maintain a firm operation. From a fundamental perspective, the supply side industry has maintained a high level of start-ups, with some equipment stopping in a short period of time accompanied by the recovery of some equipment. In the long run, some enterprises in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia have maintenance plans in August, and the industry will be reduced in the later stages of start-ups or within a narrow range. In terms of demand, summer corn topdressing in some areas in the north is gradually coming to an end and is expected to be fully completed at the end of the month. Agricultural demand continues to weaken, but prices in the early stage have loosened slightly, and new orders have been added; in terms of labor demand, downstream compound fertilizer and plywood factories maintain appropriate replenishment, and overall demand is weakening. Internationally, agricultural demand in the northern hemisphere is coming to an end, the focus of consumption has shifted to the southern hemisphere, there are expectations for printed and labeled exports, and the emotional outlook has moved the mentality of the Chinese market. Overall, urea prices are expected to continue to consolidate in the short term.