Gasoline (20230724): The market has increased, but there is not much room for increase

Gasoline: the market has risen somewhat, but there is not much room for increase.

International crude oil closed

 

Date	Market	Specifications	Close (US dollars / barrel)	Rise and fall
20230721	America	WTI	77.07	1.44
20230721	The United Kingdom	Brent	81.07	1.43

 

Gasoline price index

On July 24, China's gasoline price index rose 27.37, or 0.31%, to 8906.93, while China's gasoline price index rose 30.54, or 0.33%, to 9215.29. The 9-month gasoline index and the 9-month gasoline index both rose, and the price difference between the 9-month gasoline index and the 9-month gasoline index was 308.36.

 

Gasoline market analysis:

Today, the wholesale prices of gasoline in various regions of China fluctuate up and down, including increases in gasoline prices in South China, Southwest China, East China and Northeast China, ranging from 20 yuan to 100 yuan per ton. The price of gasoline in Central China and North China will be reduced by 20-50 yuan per ton. In other regions, the price zone is mainly arranged. The ex-factory price of georefining has been raised by a narrow range, of which gasoline prices in Shandong, North China, East China and Northwest China have increased by 20-150 yuan per ton, while gasoline prices in Central China and Northeast China have been temporarily stable. At present, the turnover of China's gasoline market is general, eliminating storage in the middle and lower reaches, while purchasing rigid demand. In addition, the monthly pressure is increasing in some areas near the end of the month, and there is little room for refineries to increase.

 

July 24 main wholesale price of gasoline (yuan / ton)
Area	Gasoline model	Price 7.21	Price 7.24	Rise and fall
North China region	92#	8650-9070	8650-9070	0/0
	95#	8700-9400	8700-9380	0/-20
South China	92#	8800-9100	8900-9200	100/100
	95#	9000-9400	9100-9500	100/100
Central China	92#	8650-9050	8650-9000	0/-50
	95#	8800-9250	8800-9200	0/-50
East China region	92#	8650-9300	8700-9300	50/0
	95#	8850-9650	8900-9650	50/0
Northwestern region	92#	8800-9760	8800-9760	0/0
	95#	9000-10330	9000-10330	0/0
Southwest China	92#	8900-9380	8950-9400	50/20
	95#	9150-9830	9200-9830	50/20
Northeast China	92#	8650-9300	8700-9300	50/0
	95#	9000-9640	9100-9640	100/0

 

The ex-factory price of gasoline refinery on July 24 (RMB / ton)
Area	Gasoline model	Price 7.21	Price 7.24	Rise and fall
Shandong area	92#	8260-8650	8310-8700	50/50
	95#	8400-8790	8450-8800	50/10
North China region	92#	8420-8750	8470-8770	50/20
	95#	8570-8830	8620-8850	50/20
Central China	92#	8610-8610	8610-8610	0/0
	95#	8810-8810	8810-8810	0/0
East China region	92#	8320-8430	8380-8460	60/30
	95#	8470-8580	8530-8610	60/30
Northwestern region	92#	8600-9000	8650-9150	50/150
	95#	8750-8950	8800-8950	50/0
Northeast China	92#	8800-8800	8800-8800	0/0
	95#	9000-9000	9000-9000	0/0

 

Future forecast

From the perspective of international crude oil, Saudi Arabia and Russia reduced production and exports last week, and the supply side tightened. In addition, the Fed's interest rate hike cycle may be coming to an end, international oil prices are rising, and the cost side is good. From the supply side, the start of the main refinery is stable, some refinery starts may be up-regulated, and the supply of gasoline resources is relatively abundant. China's gasoline demand is relatively stable, and the current low-end support can not be pushed up enough. However, this week's price limit adjustment expectations are clear, the news side is positive guidance, traders may purchase in advance. Taken together, it is expected that China's gasoline market will fluctuate less in the short term.

 

 

Maximum retail price list of gasoline and diesel in provinces, autonomous regions, cities and central cities

Since 24:00 on July 12, 2023, the prices of gasoline and diesel in China (standard products, the same below) will be increased by 155,150 yuan per ton respectively. After the adjustment, the maximum retail prices of gasoline and diesel in all provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) and central cities are shown in the attached table. The date of the price adjustment will be 24:00 on July 12, 2023, the eighth working day in China since the price adjustment was announced by the National Development and Reform Commission.

 

Schedule

Maximum retail price of gasoline and diesel in provinces, autonomous regions, cities and central cities

Unit: yuan / ton

	I. areas with one province and one price
	Gasoline (standard)	Diesel oil (standard)
Beijing	9545	8520
Tianjin	9510	8485
Hebei Province	9510	8485
Shanxi province	9580	8540
Liaoning province	9510	8485
Jilin Province	9510	8485
Heilongjiang province	9510	8485
Shanghai	9525	8490
Jiangsu Province	9565	8525
Zhejiang Province	9565	8540
Anhui province	9560	8535
Fujian Province	9585	8550
Jiangxi province	9565	8545
Shandong province	9520	8495
Hubei province	9535	8510
Hunan Province	9575	8570
Henan province	9530	8505
Hainan province	9655	8620
Chongqing	9725	8695
Guangdong province	9590	8555
Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous region	9655	8620
Ningxia Hui Autonomous region	9515	8485
Gansu province	9495	8505
Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous region	9290	8380
II. Areas with one province and one price will not be implemented for the time being
	Gasoline (standard)	Diesel oil (standard)
Hohhot	9525	8500
Chengdu city	9730	8720
Guiyang city	9690	8645
Kunming City	9720	8675
Xi'an city	9495	8495
Xining City	9475	8530

                                                                

Note: 1. The prices in the table include consumption tax, value-added tax, urban construction tax and additional education fees.

2. The prices of gasoline and diesel oil in the table are in line with the compulsory national standards of VIA and Ⅵ in the sixth stage.

3. The sixth stage standard of gasoline and diesel is gasoline and No. 0 vehicle diesel respectively.

4. The prices of gasoline and diesel oil that meet the quality standards of the sixth stage for the national reserve and the Xinjiang production and Construction Corps are 8780 yuan and 7755 yuan per ton respectively, and other relevant oil price policies shall be implemented in accordance with the provisions of the measures for Oil Price Management.