Daily review of urea: The two markets are weakening within a narrow range (July 24)

China Urea Price Index:

According to Feiduo data, the urea small pellet price index on July 24 was 2,410.91, down 8.18 from last Friday, down 0.34% month-on-month, and down 7.50% year-on-year.

Urea futures market:

The futures price of the urea UR2309 contract fell first and then rose today, but the futures price fluctuated little. After the opening of early trading, the futures price fell to the intraday low of 2076, and then the futures price fluctuated upward. In the afternoon, the futures price remained volatile and fell late, closing at 2095. The opening price of the Urea UR2309 contract: 2110, the highest price: 2134, the lowest price: 2076, the settlement price: 2107, the closing price dropped by 3 compared with the settlement price of the previous trading day, and the month-on-month decline of 0.14%. The daily fluctuation range is 2076-2134, and the spread is 58; The 09 contract has reduced its position by 21418 lots today, and so far, it has held 287936 lots.

Spot market analysis:

At the beginning of the week, China's urea spot market was weak, with price fluctuations ranging from 10 to 50 yuan/ton in some areas. International urea prices rose again last Friday, and the export market was optimistic. The recovery supply of enterprises that have been repaired in the early stage has increased, but agricultural demand has continued to decrease. At present, the overall market has a heavy wait-and-see attitude. Specifically, prices in Northeast China have stabilized at 2,170 - 2,260 yuan/ton. Prices in North China fell to 2,220 - 2,400 yuan/ton. Prices in the northwest region are stable at 2,420 - 2,430 yuan/ton. Prices in Southwest China are stable at 2,350 - 3,000 yuan/ton. Prices in East China have stabilized at 2,360 - 2,420 yuan/ton. The price of small and medium-sized particles in Central China fell to 2,360 - 2,560 yuan/ton, and the price of large particles stabilized at 2,380 - 2,420 yuan/ton. Prices in South China fell to 2,550 - 2,600 yuan/ton.

Market outlook forecast:

From the perspective of futures, today's futures prices are down in a narrow range. Observe that the Bollinger Band has three tracks, with support for the middle and lower tracks, but the upper track is suppressed, and the trend of futures prices is temporarily unclear, which provides weak guidance for spot goods. From a fundamental perspective, the supply side industry has maintained a high level of start-ups, early maintenance equipment has been restored, and daily production may increase within the week, but the overall change is not large. In terms of demand, summer corn topdressing in some northern areas is gradually coming to an end and is expected to be fully completed at the end of the month. Agricultural demand is gradually weakening. In terms of labor demand, appropriate replenishment will continue to be maintained in the near future, and overall demand is weakening. Internationally, agricultural demand in the northern hemisphere is coming to an end, and the focus of consumption has shifted to the southern hemisphere. Although there has been no new news from the printing and labeling, the market expects an increase in exports. On the whole, urea prices are expected to be consolidated in the short term, accompanied by sporadic reductions in some regions.