Methanol: The supply increase is obvious. The methanol market is weak and difficult to change

On July 24th, the market price index of methanol was 2122.77, which was 13.65 lower than that of the previous working day and 0.64% lower than the previous working day.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on July 21:

China CFR 257-260USD / ton, Ping

European FOB 2-200.5 euros / ton, up 1 euro / ton

Us FOB 66.75-67.25 cents per gallon, up 0.75 cents per gallon

Southeast Asia CFR 292.5-294.5 US dollars / ton, up 6.50 US dollars / ton.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2090-2100 (30), South: 2050-2060 (0), North: 1910-2020 (- 40), Lunan: 2250-2280 (- 30), Henan: 2160-2170 (10), Shanxi: 20902180 (- 30), Port: 2205,2220 (5)

Freight:

North Route-North Shandong 170-260 (- 50 amp Muir 60), South Line-North Shandong 250-330 (0 amp 0), Shanxi-North Shandong 120-170 (0 pm 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 220-270 (0 max 0)

Spot market: today, the methanol market is weak and difficult to change, the price volatility of the spot market is 5-50 yuan / ton, the volatility of the futures market is weak, the spot transaction is slightly general, the supply in the Chinese market continues to increase, the demand improvement is limited, and the traders' mentality is more bearish, the trading atmosphere is light. Specifically, the market price in the main producing areas has been partially reduced, and the price is quoted on the southern route today. 2050-2060 yuan / ton, low-end stability, north line quotation 1910-2020 yuan / ton, low-end reduction of 40 yuan / ton, of which Shaanxi Changqing methanol this week's latest quotation: 2000 tons quoted 2150 yuan / ton, more than 2000 tons less than 2160 yuan / ton. The plant's 600000-ton methanol plant was stopped for maintenance on July 10th and is expected to restart this week. With the gradual recovery of many sets of devices, bearish sentiment in the field is gradually rising, downstream demand is dull, and the transaction is generally done. In the later stage, we also need to pay attention to the operation of the plant in the field. Consumer market prices are stable and small, of which southern Shandong 2250-2280 yuan / ton, low-end reduction of 30 yuan / ton, northern Shandong 2190-2220 yuan / ton, low-end stable, the current market trading is slightly cautious, downstream enterprises wait and see, the market atmosphere is weak. Prices in North China have been partially reduced, including 2090-2180 yuan / ton in Shanxi, 30 yuan / ton in the low end, and 2250-2300 yuan / ton in Hebei, maintaining the previous working day. At present, operators in the market are cautious and wait-and-see, and the overall trading atmosphere is general. Quotations in other regions of China have also been adjusted to varying degrees.

Port market: methanol futures are weak and volatile today. Spot a small amount of rigid demand; paper single side when high shipments are active, arbitrage buying mainly, the basis is slightly weak. It's a mediocre deal. Taicang main port transaction price: spot transaction: 2220, base difference 09-5 position 7 transaction: 2205-2220, basis difference 09-8 Melissa 5 transaction 8 transaction: 2200-2230, basis difference 09-5 Universe transaction 8 transaction: 2220-2245, basis difference 09 / 9 / 5 / 10 / 9 transaction: 2240 / 2245, basis / 09 / 30.

Forecast in the future: on the supply side: starting from mid-July, on-site maintenance equipment will gradually return, and China's supply will gradually increase. At the end of July, some units are still planned to restart, and the negative impact on the supply side will continue. In addition, methanol imports may remain high in the later period. China's spot supply may reach its peak. Demand: the traditional downstream construction fluctuates in a narrow range, and the demand changes little. At present, the demand for olefins in the lower reaches grows slowly, but the shutdown of the MTO plant in Qinghai Salt Lake leads to a narrow decline in MTO start-up, the fluctuation of the overall demand downstream of methanol is not large for the time being, and the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream and traders is not high. In the later stage, attention should be paid to the load changes of downstream olefin production and olefin units in the field. At present, coal prices fluctuate in a narrow range, cost support is not reduced, methanol fundamentals do not have favorable support for the time being, the pattern of supply exceeds demand is highlighted, the operators in the market are lack of confidence in the future, the bearish mentality is gradually rising, and it is expected that the short-term methanol market price or weak consolidation, in the later stage, we also need to pay close attention to the macro view, coal prices and the operation of the plant in the field.