Methanol: The methanol market continues to be weak and the transaction atmosphere is poor

On July 21, the methanol market price index was 2136.42, down 8.51 from yesterday, down 0.40% from the previous month.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on July 20:

China's CFR ranges from US $257 to US $260 per ton, down by US $1 per ton

European FOB 199-201 euros / ton, down 0.75 euros / ton

Us FOB 66-68 cents per gallon, down 1 cent per gallon

CFR in Southeast Asia is between US $286 and US $288 per ton, down US $2 per ton.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2060-2100 (0), South: 2050-2060 (0), North: 1950-2020 (0), Lunan: 2280 (- 20), Henan: 2150-2180 (- 30), Shanxi: 2120-2180 (- 10), Port: 22002220 (- 35)

Freight:

North Route-North Shandong 220-320 (0ax 0), South Line-North Shandong 250-330 (0ax 0), Shanxi-North Shandong 120-170 (0ax 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 220-270 (0max 0)

Spot market: today, the price of methanol market continues to be weak, the futures market fluctuates, the basis remains stable, the port spot has a small amount of rigid demand, the supply in the Chinese market has increased, and some enterprises have lowered their quotations for shipments. however, the market operators are cautious in receiving goods, the wait-and-see mood is gradually rising, and the transaction is not good. Specifically, the market price in the main producing areas remains stable, and the price is quoted on the southern route today. 2050-2060 yuan / ton, the northern line quotes 1950-2020 yuan / ton, the low end is stable, at present, the supply in the field has been restored, the mentality of the operators is weak, the trade transfer price of some enterprises has been reduced, and the transaction is still mediocre. In the later stage, we still need to pay attention to the operation of the plant in the field. Consumer market prices fell, including 2280 yuan / ton in southern Shandong, 20 yuan / ton in the low end, 2190-2200 yuan / ton in northern Shandong, and 50 yuan / ton in the low end. At present, trading on the market is slightly cautious, downstream enterprises are mainly wait-and-see, and the market atmosphere is weakening. The bidding price in today's market revolves around 2190-2220 yuan / ton, of which Shenchi chemical methanol bid price 2220 yuan / ton, Oriental Hualong 2190 yuan / ton. Prices in North China have been partially reduced, including 2120-2180 yuan / ton in Shanxi, 10 yuan / ton in the low end, and 2250-2300 yuan / ton in Hebei, maintaining yesterday. At present, operators in the market are cautious in receiving goods, mainly wait and see, and the overall trading atmosphere is general. Quotations in other regions of China have also been adjusted to varying degrees.

Port market: methanol futures fluctuated widely today. Spot a small amount of rigid demand, arbitrage to receive goods. In the morning, there are high shipments on the side of paper orders, and most of them are at low prices; in the afternoon, arbitrage shipments are active and the basis is stable. The overall transaction volume is small. Taicang main port transaction price: spot transaction: 2220, base difference 09-5 position 7 transaction: 2200-2245, base difference 09: 0Universe 5 position 8 transaction: 2205-2240, base difference 09: 0Universe 5 position 8 transaction: 2210-2215, base difference 09: 5X 8 transaction: 2205-2250, base difference 09: 10pm 1510 transaction: 2230-2270, base difference 09: 30pm 33.

Future forecast: the coal price continues to be strong in the near future, and the cost-end support is temporarily stable. With the early maintenance equipment resuming one after another, the supply in the field has been increased, and the narrow range of port inventory during the week, the overall mentality of the market is slightly general. In the later period, some units are still planned to restart, and the supply is expected to continue to increase. From the demand side, the start-up of some traditional downstream devices is narrow, and the demand is slightly positive, but the impact of the off-season is still there. Short-term demand growth is limited, Zhongtian Hechuang, Yangmei Hengtong and other olefin units reduced negative operation, Qinghai Salt Lake MTO plant shut down, methanol-to-olefin capacity utilization decreased slightly during the week, and later attention should be paid to the load change and operation of olefin units in the field. At present, the cost support is prominent, the supply side is expected to increase, there is no obvious volume on the demand side, the wait-and-see mood of the operators in the market is still there, and the short-term methanol market price is expected to be arranged in a narrow range. In the later stage, we also need to pay close attention to the macro view, coal prices and the operation of the plant in the field.