Daily review of urea: Spot prices partially rose at the moment of ups and downs (July 19)

China Urea Price Index:

According to Feiduo data, the urea small pellet price index on July 20 was 2,415.45, up 14.09 from yesterday, up 0.59% month-on-month, and down 8.13% year-on-year.

Urea futures market:

The opening price of the Urea UR2309 contract: 2144, the highest price: 2177, the lowest price: 2106, the settlement price: 2142, the closing price increased by 19 compared with the settlement price of the previous trading day, and the month-on-month increase by 0.90%. The daily fluctuation range is 2106-2177, and the price difference is 71; The 09 contract has reduced its position by 14723 lots today, and has held 322402 lots so far.

Spot market analysis:

Specifically, prices in Northeast China rose to 2,170 - 2,260 yuan/ton. Prices in North China rose to 2,220 - 2,380 yuan/ton. Prices in Northwest China rose to 2,420 - 2,430 yuan/ton. Prices in Southwest China are stable at 2,350 - 3,000 yuan/ton. Prices in East China rose to 2,360 - 2,430 yuan/ton. The price of small and medium-sized particles in Central China rose to 2,380 - 2,500 yuan/ton, and the price of large particles rose to 2,380 - 2,420 yuan/ton. Prices in South China are stable at 2,550 - 2,650 yuan/ton.

Market outlook forecast:

From the perspective of futures, today's futures price rose first and then fluctuated at a high level, which was positive to drive the spot trading atmosphere. Fundamentally speaking, the supply side industry has maintained a high level of start-ups, with a daily output of nearly 170,000 tons. Manufacturers are ready to support it. In addition, new orders are trading vigorously, inventories are still tight, and there is little pressure to go to the warehouse in a short period of time. Still driven by the increase in international market prices, China's confidence in trading orders in Hong Kong markets has been strengthened. On the downstream side, China's needs still exist. Affected by the mentality of buying up but not buying down, the market price fell in the previous two days has now risen, and purchasing enthusiasm has increased again. In terms of compound fertilizers and gluing mills, downstream dealers are still cautious and the market is consolidating in a short period of time. Internationally, agricultural demand in the northern hemisphere is coming to an end, and the focus of consumption has shifted to the southern hemisphere. Although there has been no new news from the printing and labeling, the market expects an increase in exports. Overall, urea prices are expected to remain high in the short term.