Methanol: Futures market fluctuated and fell back, the focus of market transactions shifted downward

On July 20, the methanol market price index was 2144.93, down 10.57 from yesterday and 0.49 per cent from the previous month.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on July 19:

China CFR 258-262USD / ton, down US $2.00 / tonne

European FOB 199.75-201.75 euros / ton, up 2.50 euros / ton

Us FOB 67-69 cents per gallon, flat

CFR in Southeast Asia is US $288-290 per ton, flat.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2060-2100 (0), South: 2050-2060 (0), North: 1950-2020 (- 30), Lunan: 2300 (0), Henan: 2180-2220 (10), Shanxi: 2130-2180 (0), Port: 22352245 (- 20)

Freight:

North Route-North Shandong 220-320 (- 10max 0), South Line-North Shandong 250-330 (0max 0), Shanxi-North Shandong 120-170 (0max 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 220-270 (0max 0)

Spot market: today, the price of methanol market is weak, the futures market is fluctuating, the port spot demand is maintained, the negotiations are light, the focus of transaction in the Chinese market is steady and downward, and at present, some of the pre-maintenance equipment have been restored one after another. the supply in the field has increased, the mood of downstream and traders to receive goods is weak, and the transaction is general. Specifically, the market price in the main producing areas has been reduced by a narrow range, and the price is quoted on the southern route today. 2050-2060 yuan / ton, the low end is stable, the north line quotation is 1950-2020 yuan / ton, and the low end is reduced by 30 yuan / ton. at present, some of the devices in the field have been restored, the market sentiment has weakened, and the transaction is general. In the later stage, we need to pay attention to the operation of the plant in the field. The market price of consumer land fell, among which Lunan 2300 yuan / ton, low-end stability, northern Shandong 2240-2270 yuan / ton, low-end reduction of 30 yuan / ton, the current market operators are cautious, downstream enterprises wait and see mainly. Prices in North China remain stable, including 2130-2180 yuan / ton in Shanxi and 2250-2300 yuan / ton in Hebei, maintaining yesterday. At present, operators in the market are cautious in receiving goods, mainly wait and see, and the overall trading atmosphere is general. Quotations in other regions of China have also been adjusted to varying degrees.

Port market: methanol futures are weak and volatile today. Spot a small amount of rigid demand negotiations. Paper goods unilaterally higher than the price, the transaction is limited; part of the bargain, arbitrage and exchange offers more, the basis is stable. The overall deal is OK. Taicang main port transaction price: spot transaction: 2235, base difference 09-10 position 7 transaction: 2240-2255, base difference 09pm, base difference 0cm, market price 8th, transaction price: 2250-2275, basis difference 09pm 10pm 15X 9, deal: 2265-2295, basis difference 09pm 25pm 30.

Future forecast: in the near future, the coal price is stable and strong, the market sentiment is good, it is expected to maintain an upward trend in the short term, and there is a favorable support in the cost area. at present, the maintenance equipment in the field is centrally returned, and the overall supply has increased. In addition, some units are still planned to restart in the later stage, and the supply is expected to continue to increase. From the demand side, 300000 ton olefin units in Shandong Luxi and Yangmei Hengtong are reduced, and Zhejiang Xingxing continues to stop. It has a certain impact on the downstream olefin demand, some traditional downstream starts up slightly, and the demand recovers to some extent, but the overall range is limited and the impact on the methanol market is limited. In the later stage, attention should be paid to the load change and operation of olefin units in the field. At present, the cost side is good to support the continuation, the supply is expected to increase the negative market, the demand boost is limited, the cautious sentiment of the operators in the market is gradually rising, and the short-term methanol market price is expected to be arranged in a narrow range. In the later stage, we also need to pay close attention to the macro view, coal prices and the operation of the plant in the field.