Methanol: Futures rebound after falling, China's trading atmosphere is general

On July 19, the methanol market price index was 2155.5, up 5.46 from yesterday, or 0.25 per cent higher than yesterday.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on July 18:

China's CFR ranges from US $260 to US $265 per ton, up US $4 per ton.

European FOB 197.25-199.25 euros / ton, flat

Us FOB 67-69 cents per gallon, down 1 cent per gallon

CFR in Southeast Asia is US $288-290 per ton, flat.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2060-2100 (10), South: 2050-2060 (0), North: 1980-2020 (0), Lunan: 2300 (0), Henan: 2170-2200 (30), Shanxi: 2130-2180 (30), Port: 22552275 (5)

Freight:

Northern Route-230-320 (- 10 Uniqure Mel 10), Southern Route-Northern Shandong 250-330 (0amp 0), Shanxi-Northern Shandong 120-170 (0mp 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 220-270 (10max 0)

Spot market: today, the price of methanol market is adjusted in a narrow range, and the futures market enters the adjustment stage after reaching a new high. At present, the quotation in the Chinese market is arranged at a high level under the support of the cost end and the supply side recovery is not as expected. Most of the operators in the market still have a standing price mood, the consumption of rigid demand downstream is stable, and the trading atmosphere in the market is general. Specifically, the market price in the main producing areas is stable, and the price is quoted on the southern route today. 2050-2060 yuan / ton, the price of the north line is 1980-2020, the low end is stable, at present, the inventory pressure of the production enterprises in the field is not great, part of the downstream continues to extract methanol, the manufacturers mainly raise the price, the transaction is general, and we need to pay attention to the operation of the plant in the field in the later stage. The prices in the consumer market are mixed, among which Lunan 2300 yuan / ton, low-end stability, northern Shandong 2270-2290 yuan / ton, low-end down 10 yuan / ton, the current market operators are cautious, downstream enterprises wait and see. Prices in North China have been partially raised, including 2130-2180 yuan / ton in Shanxi, 30 yuan / ton in the low end, and 2250-2300 yuan / ton in Hebei, maintaining yesterday's trading atmosphere. The price in southwest China rose partially, with Sichuan and Chongqing around 2180-2300 yuan / ton, maintaining yesterday's 2170-2280 yuan / ton in Yunnan-Guizhou region, with a low-end increase of 30 yuan / ton. at present, there is little supply pressure on the market, rigid demand in the lower reaches, active market enquiries and a good mood for negotiation. Quotations in other regions of China have also been adjusted to varying degrees.

Port market: methanol futures rebounded after falling today. Spot a small amount of rigid demand. Paper goods single side high sell low suction, open arbitrage to negotiate with the exchange, the basis stabilized. The overall deal is OK. Taicang main port transaction price: spot / 7: 2255-2275, basis 09-7 Maximus 5: 7 deal: 2250-2285, basis 09: 3: 10, transaction: 2260-2280, basis: 09: 10: 15: 9: 2275-2295, basis: 09: 27: 30.

Future forecast: cost: recent coal prices are stable and strong, some coal mines stop production due to maintenance, supply has been reduced, coupled with high temperature weather continues to increase daily consumption of power plants, demand release, coal prices are expected to rise steadily in the short term. Supply: the early maintenance equipment gradually returned, Yankuang Guohong, Ningxia Kunpeng, Yizhou Technology, Yanchang Coal and other methanol units restart, Shaanxi Lean 260000 tons of methanol plant load increase, the overall market supply is expected to increase, in the later stage, we also need to pay attention to the implementation of plant restart. In terms of demand: some MTO units continue to be produced outside, and the demand is expected to increase, but the traditional downstream demand is not obvious for the time being. In addition, some downstream slightly contradict the high-priced supply, mainly wait and see, and the overall demand performance is mediocre. In the later stage, we also need to pay attention to the load changes of olefin units in the field and the commissioning of new units. At present, the macro view and cost are good, the supply side is expected to increase, the demand boost is limited, the operators in the market are mainly wait-and-see, and the short-term methanol market price is expected to be arranged in a narrow range. In the later stage, we also need to pay close attention to the macro view, coal prices and the operation of the plant in the field.