Gasoline (20230719): Supported by phased replenishment, the ex-factory price of local refiners has increased

Gasoline: phased replenishment support, local refinery ex-factory price increases

International crude oil closed

 

Date	Market	Specifications	Close (US dollars / barrel)	Rise and fall
20230718	America	WTI	75.75	1.6
20230718	The United Kingdom	Brent	79.63	1.13

 

Gasoline price index

On July 19th, China's gasoline price index fell 13.15%, or 0.15%, to 8849.97, while China's gasoline price index fell 14.36, or 0.16%, to 9159.70. The 9-month gasoline index and the 9-month gasoline index were both downgraded, and the price difference between the 9-month gasoline index and the 9-month gasoline index was 309.73.

 

Gasoline market analysis:

Today, wholesale gasoline prices in various regions of China are mixed, with gasoline prices in Central China and Southwest China falling by 50-100 yuan per ton. The low-end gasoline prices of Nine and Nine gasoline in East China have been raised by 50 yuan per ton. Other areas are stable for the time being. The ex-factory price of geotechnical refinery has stopped falling and turned to rise, among which the prices of gasoline in Shandong, North China, Central China, East China and Ninth and Northwest China have increased, with a range of 30-70 yuan per ton. The prices of gasoline in Northeast China and Northwest China are temporarily stable. At present, the deal in China's gasoline market is OK, and the quotations of the main units are different in areas, and most of them are adjusted according to their own conditions. Local refinery inventory is relatively low, coupled with the consumption of terminal trade inventory, so there is a willingness to raise prices in areas with less pressure.

 

July 19 main wholesale price of gasoline (yuan / ton)
Area	Gasoline model	Price 7.18	Price 7.19	Rise and fall
North China region	92#	8650-9070	8650-9070	0/0
	95#	8700-9350	8700-9350	0/0
South China	92#	8700-9100	8700-9100	0/0
	95#	8950-9400	8950-9400	0/0
Central China	92#	8550-9100	8600-9000	50/-100
	95#	8750-9300	8750-9200	0/-100
East China region	92#	8600-9300	8650-9300	50/0
	95#	8800-9650	8850-9650	50/0
Northwestern region	92#	8750-9760	8750-9760	0/0
	95#	8950-10330	8950-10330	0/0
Southwest China	92#	8850-9400	8850-9320	0/-80
	95#	9130-9850	9130-9770	0/-80
Northeast China	92#	8580-9300	8580-9300	0/0
	95#	8950-9640	8950-9640	0/0

 

July 19 gasoline refinery ex-factory price (yuan / ton)
Area	Gasoline model	Price 7.18	Price 7.19	Rise and fall
Shandong area	92#	8200-8600	8200-8650	0/50
	95#	8330-8700	8330-8750	0/50
North China region	92#	8350-8670	8420-8700	70/30
	95#	8500-8770	8570-8800	70/30
Central China	92#	8500-8500	8550-8550	50/50
	95#	8700-8700	8750-8750	50/50
East China region	92#	8270-8360	8300-8380	30/20
	95#	8420-8510	8450-8530	30/20
Northwestern region	92#	8700-8900	8700-9000	0/100
	95#	8850-8950	8850-8950	0/0
Northeast China	92#	8800-8800	8800-8800	0/0
	95#	9000-9000	9000-9000	0/0

 

Future forecast

From the perspective of international crude oil, if Russia's production is reduced as scheduled in August, Russia's crude oil exports may be reduced by about 2 million tons in the third quarter. The possible tightening of international crude oil supply has increased market concerns and crude oil futures prices have risen. From the perspective of Chinese demand, the downstream rigid demand support is OK, phased replenishment continues to stimulate the operation of the market, in the short term, bullish sentiment is relatively high. From the point of view of the start-up of the plant, although there is a maintenance plan at present, the overall starting load is OK, and there is still room for upward adjustment on the supply side. Taken together, China's gasoline market is expected to rise steadily in the short term.

 

 

Maximum retail price list of gasoline and diesel in provinces, autonomous regions, cities and central cities

Since 24:00 on July 12, 2023, the prices of gasoline and diesel in China (standard products, the same below) will be increased by 155,150 yuan per ton respectively. After the adjustment, the maximum retail prices of gasoline and diesel in all provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) and central cities are shown in the attached table. The date of the price adjustment will be 24:00 on July 12, 2023, the fifth working day in China since the price adjustment was announced by the National Development and Reform Commission.

 

Schedule

Maximum retail price of gasoline and diesel in provinces, autonomous regions, cities and central cities

Unit: yuan / ton

	I. areas with one province and one price
	Gasoline (standard)	Diesel oil (standard)
Beijing	9545	8520
Tianjin	9510	8485
Hebei Province	9510	8485
Shanxi province	9580	8540
Liaoning province	9510	8485
Jilin Province	9510	8485
Heilongjiang province	9510	8485
Shanghai	9525	8490
Jiangsu Province	9565	8525
Zhejiang Province	9565	8540
Anhui province	9560	8535
Fujian Province	9585	8550
Jiangxi province	9565	8545
Shandong province	9520	8495
Hubei province	9535	8510
Hunan Province	9575	8570
Henan province	9530	8505
Hainan province	9655	8620
Chongqing	9725	8695
Guangdong province	9590	8555
Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous region	9655	8620
Ningxia Hui Autonomous region	9515	8485
Gansu province	9495	8505
Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous region	9290	8380
II. Areas with one province and one price will not be implemented for the time being
	Gasoline (standard)	Diesel oil (standard)
Hohhot	9525	8500
Chengdu city	9730	8720
Guiyang city	9690	8645
Kunming City	9720	8675
Xi'an city	9495	8495
Xining City	9475	8530

                                                                

Note: 1. The prices in the table include consumption tax, value-added tax, urban construction tax and additional education fees.

2. The prices of gasoline and diesel oil in the table are in line with the compulsory national standards of VIA and Ⅵ in the sixth stage.

3. The sixth stage standard of gasoline and diesel is gasoline and No. 0 vehicle diesel respectively.

4. The prices of gasoline and diesel oil that meet the quality standards of the sixth stage for the national reserve and the Xinjiang production and Construction Corps are 8780 yuan and 7755 yuan per ton respectively, and other relevant oil price policies shall be implemented in accordance with the provisions of the measures for Oil Price Management.