Methanol: Good supply supports afternoon futures to rise more than 2%

On July 14, the methanol market price index was 2146.28, up 5.36 from yesterday, or 0.25 per cent higher than yesterday.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on July 13:

China CFR 258-265USD / ton, Ping

European FOB 195-197EUR / ton, flat

Us FOB 68-70 cents per gallon, down 1 cent per gallon

CFR in Southeast Asia is US $288-290 per ton, flat.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2050-2080 (0), South: 1950-1970 (0), North: 2010-2040 (0), Lunan: 2300-2330 (- 60), Henan: 2230-2255 (20), Shanxi: 21202240 (0), Port: 22802300 (45)

Freight:

North Route-Northern Shandong 210-310 (0hammer 0), Southern Route-Northern Shandong 250-330 (0hammer 0), Shanxi-Northern Shandong 120-170 (0mp 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 200-240 (0max 0)

Spot market: today, the price of methanol market rises steadily, the price in the Chinese market fluctuates steadily, the price range of the Chinese market is 10-45 yuan / ton, the futures market is on the high side, the spot quotation of the port is raised along with the market, the transaction maintains rigid demand, and the increase of supply in the Chinese market is less than expected. under the support of multiple positive factors, local market prices continue to rise, and downstream short-filling transactions are dominant, and regional transactions are slightly different. Specifically, the market price in the main producing areas is stable, and the price is quoted on the southern route today. 1950-1970 yuan / ton, the northern line quotation 2010-2040, low-end stability, the current on-site equipment parking led to continued reduction in supply, some manufacturers in the case of inventory pressure gradually rising price sentiment, the overall trading situation is general. The market price of consumer land is arranged in a narrow range, among which Lunan 2300-2330 yuan / ton, low-end reduction of 60 yuan / ton, northern Shandong 2320-2340 yuan / ton, low-end increase of 60 yuan / ton, the mentality of market operators is strong, the current market supply is tight, market prices are strong, some downstream enterprises wait and see mainly. The price in southwest China is stable, including 2100-2250 yuan / ton in Sichuan and Chongqing, 2140-2230 yuan / ton in Yunnan-Guizhou area, low-end stability, parking of some devices in the field, little supply pressure, market inquiry is OK, and the negotiation mood is good. Quotations in other regions of China have also been adjusted to varying degrees.

Port market: methanol futures rose after the shock today. Spot a small number of small order negotiations; long-term high-end shipments are active, arbitrage buying is the main, the basis is weak. The overall deal is OK. Taicang main port transaction price: 7, transaction price: 2280-2305, basis 09-10 picture5, basis: 2280-2330, basis 09-5, prime 10, transaction 8, transaction: 2290-2340, basis 09: 5pm 15, transaction 9: 2310-2355, base difference 09: 30, 10x: 5.

Future forecast: in the near future, the macro outlook is good, the futures market is strong, the downstream MTO is actively exploited, the market demand is expected to be good, the atmosphere is boosted, and the installations in northwest and central China are not as expected, and the new material devices in Huating and Jiutai in Gansu are parked, the overall supply in China is slightly tight, the supply side is favorable, the mentality of operators is supported, and the market price is strongly pushed up. At present, manufacturers ship smoothly under the air filling demand of downstream and traders, Chinese inventory remains low, and manufacturers' price-raising sentiment is obvious. however, in late July, many units are planned to resume, supply or storage is expected to increase, and some downstream units are planned to start-up and increase, and the demand side may recover slowly. in the later stage, we should also pay attention to the operation of methanol plant and the load change of olefin plant in the field. At present, under the influence of the superposition of multiple benefits, the methanol market continues to rise, and under the slow increase in demand, the short-term methanol market price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. In the later stage, we need to pay close attention to the macro view, coal prices and the operation of the plant in the field.