Gasoline (20230712): The upward adjustment expectation is clear, and the market rises along the trend

Gasoline: raising expectations is clear, and the market is on the rise.

International crude oil closed

 

Date	Market	Specifications	Close (US dollars / barrel)	Rise and fall
20230711	America	WTI	74.83	1.84
20230711	The United Kingdom	Brent	79.4	1.71

 

Gasoline price index

On July 12, China's gasoline price index rose 21.40, or 0.24%, to 8832.90, while China's gasoline price index rose 23.55, or 0.26%, to 9133.61. The 9-month gasoline index and the 9-month gasoline index both rose, and the price difference between the 9-month gasoline index and the 9-month gasoline index was 300.71.

 

Gasoline market analysis:

Today, wholesale gasoline prices in various regions of China have risen steadily, with increases of 50-100 yuan per ton in North China, Central China, East China and Northwest China, and in Northeast China. However, the low-end price of 911 gasoline in South China has been reduced by 50 yuan per ton. Gasoline prices in other areas are mainly stable. The ex-factory prices of geo-refining have mainly increased, of which the prices of gasoline in Shandong, North China, Central China, Northeast China and East China have increased by 50-100 yuan per ton. Gasoline prices in northwest China are stable for the time being. At present, the turnover of China's gasoline market has improved, international oil prices are on the rise, downstream trade in China is afraid to enter the market, there is still room for refineries to raise prices, and quotations have been raised many times in some areas.

 

July 12 main wholesale price of gasoline (yuan / ton)
Area	Gasoline model	Price 7.11	Price 7.12	Rise and fall
North China region	92#	8650-9070	8700-9070	50/0
	95#	8750-9350	8800-9350	50/0
South China	92#	8750-9100	8750-9100	0/0
	95#	9000-9400	8950-9400	-50/0
Central China	92#	8550-8900	8600-9000	50/100
	95#	8800-9200	8850-9200	50/0
East China region	92#	8500-9050	8600-9300	100/250
	95#	8700-9400	8800-9650	100/250
Northwestern region	92#	8750-9620	8750-9620	0/0
	95#	8950-10180	8950-10180	0/0
Southwest China	92#	8900-9180	8900-9200	0/20
	95#	9150-9630	9150-9650	0/20
Northeast China	92#	8600-9130	8650-9130	50/0
	95#	8950-9640	8950-9640	0/0

 

July 12 gasoline refinery ex-factory price (yuan / ton)
Area	Gasoline model	Price 7.11	Price 7.12	Rise and fall
Shandong area	92#	8300-8600	8300-8750	0/150
	95#	8500-8780	8550-8850	50/70
North China region	92#	8370-8760	8450-8850	80/90
	95#	8520-8860	8600-8950	80/90
Central China	92#	8500-8500	8580-8580	80/80
	95#	8700-8700	8780-8780	80/80
East China region	92#	8370-8490	8370-8500	0/10
	95#	8520-8640	8520-8650	0/10
Northwestern region	92#	8750-8900	8750-8900	0/0
	95#	8850-8950	8850-8950	0/0
Northeast China	92#	8600-8600	8700-8700	100/100
	95#	8800-8800	8900-8900	100/100

 

Future forecast

From the perspective of international crude oil, the decline in the exchange rate of the US dollar and the expected growth in global oil demand, the rise in international oil prices is good, and the cost support is enhanced. But the EIA inventory report is about to be released, and crude oil inventories may increase. From the refinery point of view, the pressure on the performance of each unit is OK, and the willingness to take the initiative to reduce the price is not high. From the point of view of the price adjustment mechanism of refined oil, the retail price of refined oil has been raised in this round, and the news is good. And export arbitrage continues to open positively, and the pressure on supply and demand in China may be alleviated. On the whole, it is expected that China's gasoline market will be running well in the short term.

 

 

Maximum retail price list of gasoline and diesel in provinces, autonomous regions, cities and central cities

Since 24:00 on June 28, 2023, the prices of gasoline and diesel in China (standard products, the same below) have been increased by 70 yuan per ton. After the adjustment, the maximum retail prices of gasoline and diesel in all provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) and central cities are shown in the attached table. The date of the price adjustment will be 24:00 on June 28, 2023, the 10th working day in China since the price adjustment was announced by the National Development and Reform Commission.

 

Schedule

Maximum retail price of gasoline and diesel in provinces, autonomous regions, cities and central cities

Unit: yuan / ton

	I. areas with one province and one price
	Gasoline (standard)	Diesel oil (standard)
Beijing	9390	8370
Tianjin	9355	8335
Hebei Province	9355	8335
Shanxi province	9425	8390
Liaoning province	9355	8335
Jilin Province	9355	8335
Heilongjiang province	9355	8335
Shanghai	9370	8340
Jiangsu Province	9410	8375
Zhejiang Province	9410	8390
Anhui province	9405	8385
Fujian Province	9430	8400
Jiangxi province	9410	8395
Shandong province	9365	8345
Hubei province	9380	8360
Hunan Province	9420	8420
Henan province	9375	8355
Hainan province	9500	8470
Chongqing	9570	8545
Guangdong province	9435	8405
Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous region	9500	8470
Ningxia Hui Autonomous region	9360	8335
Gansu province	9340	8355
Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous region	9135	8230
II. Areas with one province and one price will not be implemented for the time being
	Gasoline (standard)	Diesel oil (standard)
Hohhot	9370	8350
Chengdu city	9575	8570
Guiyang city	9535	8495
Kunming City	9565	8525
Xi'an city	9340	8345
Xining City	9320	8380

                                                                

Note: 1. The prices in the table include consumption tax, value-added tax, urban construction tax and additional education fees.

2. The prices of gasoline and diesel oil in the table are in line with the compulsory national standards of VIA and Ⅵ in the sixth stage.

3. The sixth stage standard of gasoline and diesel is gasoline and No. 0 vehicle diesel respectively.

4. The prices of gasoline and diesel oil that meet the quality standards of the sixth stage for the national reserve and the Xinjiang production and Construction Corps are 8625 yuan and 7605 yuan per ton respectively, and other relevant oil price policies shall be implemented in accordance with the provisions of the measures for Oil Price Management.