Methanol: Futures rise to nearly two-month high, Chinese prices continue to push up

On July 11, the methanol market price index was 2077.73, up 51.74 from yesterday, up 2.55% from a month earlier.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on July 10:

China CFR 248253USD / t, up US $3.00 / tonne

European FOB 193.25-195.25 euros / ton, up 0.25 euros / ton

Us FOB 70-72 cents per gallon, flat

Southeast Asian CFR 288-290 US dollars / ton, down 2 US dollars / ton.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 1980-2030 (0), South: 1860 (0), North: 1940-1990 (40), Lunan: 2240-2250 (40), Henan: 2150-2220 (60), Shanxi: 2000-2180 (50), Port: 22102230 (85)

Freight:

North Route-North Shandong 220-320 (10am 0), South Line-North Shandong 260-330 (0max 0), Shanxi-North Shandong 130-170 (10max 0), Guanzhong-Southwestern Shandong 180-230 (0gamble 10)

Spot market: today, the price of methanol in the market has risen sharply, with the largest price increase. 140 yuan per ton, the futures market is high and volatile, the mentality of the operators is supported, the Chinese market continues to be strong, the trading atmosphere is good, the port base is stable, and the spot buying gas is OK. Specifically, the market price in the main producing areas has risen, and the quotation on the central and southern route revolves around 1860 yuan / ton, which was maintained yesterday. The price of the northern line was 1940-1990 yuan / ton, and the low end was raised by 140yuan / ton. At present, the auction price of some enterprises in the field has risen, and the market atmosphere is good. In the later stage, we also need to pay attention to the operation of the plant in the field. The market price in Guanzhong area is stable and small. Today's market quotation revolves around 1980-2030 yuan / ton, and the high end is raised by 20 yuan / ton. at present, part of the equipment in the field is parked and overhauled, the supply has been reduced, and the quotation of manufacturers is firm. The market price of consumer land has been raised, including 2240-2250 yuan / ton in southern Shandong, 40 yuan / ton in the low end, 2240-2260 yuan / ton in northern Shandong, and 140yuan / ton in the low end. The bidding price in today's methanol market revolves around 2260 yuan / ton, including 2260 yuan / ton for Shenchi Chemical Industry, 2260 yuan / ton for Jincheng Petrochemical, 2260 yuan / ton for Lihuayi, 2260 yuan / ton for Dongying Hualian and 2260 yuan / ton for Oriental Hualong. The market price in North China has been raised, and the price in Shanxi is quoted around 2000-2180 yuan / ton today, with an increase of 50 yuan / ton at the low end, 2150 yuan / ton at the low end and 2200 yuan / ton at the low end. The market price in the southwest region is stable and small. The quotation of Yunnan and Guizhou is around 2130-2200 yuan / ton, Sichuan-Chongqing 2100-2200 yuan / ton, and the low end is stable. at present, the market operators have a strong wait-and-see mood, the transaction is general, and the terminal rigid demand is purchased.

Port market: methanol futures are high and volatile today. Spot rigid demand negotiations; paper selling every high delivery, some unilateral follow-up, arbitrage delivery active, the basis stabilized. There was a slight stalemate in the afternoon and the overall transaction was active. Taicang main port transaction price: spot transaction: 2210-2225, base difference 09-15 Maximus 10 position 7 deal: 2220-2230, base difference 09-5 prime prime 15 position 8 transaction price: 2230-2250, base difference 09-10 Universe 15 position 8 transaction: 2245-2260, base difference 09-17 Universe 23 position 9 transaction: 2260-2265, base difference 09: 30.

Future forecast: the recent rise in coal prices, good cost support, coupled with the futures market high volatility, the Chinese market prices are up in an all-round way, the market sentiment is good, according to the fundamentals of methanol supply and demand, there are both overhaul and restart of on-site equipment. Shaanxi Changqing 600000 ton plant stopped for overhaul today, Shanxi Yaxin 300000 ton plant has been restarted, China and Angola United, Ningxia Kunpeng plan to restart in the near future, market supply has not been significantly reduced. In the later stage, we also need to pay attention to the operation of the plant in the field. On the demand side, MTO has no favorable guidance for the time being, and the demand performance is stable. Under the background of the off-season, the demand performance of some traditional downstream industries continues to be weak, the purchasing mood of downstream traders is weak, and the overall demand shows no obvious signs of picking up. At present, the macro view and cost side are good to support the market, the weak pattern of methanol supply and demand remains, operators are still cautious, they hold a wait-and-see attitude towards the future, and the short-term methanol market price is expected to be arranged in a narrow range. In the later stage, we also need to pay attention to crude oil, coal prices and the operation of the plant in the field.