Gasoline (20230710): Just need to purchase while eliminating downstream warehouses, and refinery shipments are not good

Gasoline: in addition to rigid demand procurement, refinery shipments are not good.

International crude oil closed

 

Date	Market	Specifications	Close (US dollars / barrel)	Rise and fall
20230707	America	WTI	73.86	2.06
20230707	The United Kingdom	Brent	78.47	1.95

 

Gasoline price index

On July 10, China's gasoline price index fell 2.48, or 0.03%, to 8822.88, while China's gasoline price index fell 12.20, or 0.13%, to 9128.84. The 9-month gasoline index and the 9-month gasoline index were both downgraded, and the price difference between the 9-month gasoline index and the 9-month gasoline index was 305.96.

 

Gasoline market analysis:

Today, wholesale gasoline prices in various regions of China are mainly arranged in a narrow range, among which gasoline prices in North China, South China, Central China and East China are reduced by 50-150 yuan per ton. The low-end prices of Nine and Nine gasoline in Northwest China will be raised by 50 yuan per ton. Gasoline in the southwest and northeast regions is sorted out within the price range. The ex-factory prices of georefining were mainly reduced, among which the prices of gasoline in Shandong, North China, Central China and East China were reduced by 80-160 yuan per ton. The northwest region has increased by 50 yuan per ton, and the price in the northeast region has remained stable for the time being. At present, the turnover of China's gasoline market is insufficient, while the downstream stock is eliminated, the rigid demand is purchased, the bottom support is general, the refinery shipment is not as expected, and the quantity is more than expected. On the whole, affected by the previous rise, the market wait-and-see mentality is more.

 

The wholesale price of gasoline on July 10 (RMB / ton)
Area	Gasoline model	Price 7.7	Price 7.10	Rise and fall
North China region	92#	8750-9100	8650-9100	-50/0
	95#	8800-9350	8750-9350	-50/0
South China	92#	8800-9150	8750-9100	-50/-50
	95#	9050-9450	9000-9400	-50/-50
Central China	92#	8700-9000	8650-9000	-50/0
	95#	8850-9300	8800-9300	-50/0
East China region	92#	8650-9100	8500-9050	-150/-50
	95#	8850-9450	8700-9400	-150/-50
Northwestern region	92#	8700-9620	8750-9620	50/0
	95#	8900-10180	8950-10180	50/0
Southwest China	92#	8900-9150	8900-9150	0/0
	95#	9150-9600	9150-9600	0/0
Northeast China	92#	8600-9130	8600-9130	0/0
	95#	8950-9640	8950-9640	0/0

 

The ex-factory price of gasoline refinery on July 10 (RMB / ton)
Area	Gasoline model	Price 7.7	Price 7.10	Rise and fall
Shandong area	92#	8480-8730	8350-8600	-130/-130
	95#	8630-8850	8500-8820	-130/-30
North China region	92#	8500-8850	8390-8750	-110/-100
	95#	8600-8950	8520-8850	-80/-100
Central China	92#	8660-8660	8500-8500	-160/-160
	95#	8860-8860	8700-8700	-160/-160
East China region	92#	8520-8670	8430-8510	-90/-160
	95#	8670-8820	8580-8660	-90/-160
Northwestern region	92#	8700-8900	8750-8900	50/0
	95#	8850-8900	8850-8950	0/50
Northeast China	92#	8600-8600	8600-8600	0/0
	95#	8800-8800	8800-8800	0/0

 

Future forecast

From the perspective of international crude oil, the global supply is tight and the international oil price is rising, but the weak global economic outlook restrains the oil price to rise. The cost side is OK to support. In terms of demand, the fuel consumption of automotive air conditioners in summer still has some support, but the recent hot and rainy weather suppresses the demand. At the same time, the gasoline market rose many times last week, gasoline prices are relatively high, and the downstream wait-and-see mentality reappears. As for the refinery, the weekend shipments are not good and there is a little bit of fatigue. In addition, the number of overhaul refineries decreased significantly in July, and the operating load may continue to increase. On the whole, it is expected that China's gasoline market will be sorted out within a narrow range in the short term.

 

 

Maximum retail price list of gasoline and diesel in provinces, autonomous regions, cities and central cities

Since 24:00 on June 28, 2023, the prices of gasoline and diesel in China (standard products, the same below) have been increased by 70 yuan per ton. After the adjustment, the maximum retail prices of gasoline and diesel in all provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) and central cities are shown in the attached table. The date of the price adjustment will be 24:00 on June 28, 2023, the eighth working day since the price adjustment was announced by the National Development and Reform Commission.

 

Schedule

Maximum retail price of gasoline and diesel in provinces, autonomous regions, cities and central cities

Unit: yuan / ton

	I. areas with one province and one price
	Gasoline (standard)	Diesel oil (standard)
Beijing	9390	8370
Tianjin	9355	8335
Hebei Province	9355	8335
Shanxi province	9425	8390
Liaoning province	9355	8335
Jilin Province	9355	8335
Heilongjiang province	9355	8335
Shanghai	9370	8340
Jiangsu Province	9410	8375
Zhejiang Province	9410	8390
Anhui province	9405	8385
Fujian Province	9430	8400
Jiangxi province	9410	8395
Shandong province	9365	8345
Hubei province	9380	8360
Hunan Province	9420	8420
Henan province	9375	8355
Hainan province	9500	8470
Chongqing	9570	8545
Guangdong province	9435	8405
Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous region	9500	8470
Ningxia Hui Autonomous region	9360	8335
Gansu province	9340	8355
Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous region	9135	8230
II. Areas with one province and one price will not be implemented for the time being
	Gasoline (standard)	Diesel oil (standard)
Hohhot	9370	8350
Chengdu city	9575	8570
Guiyang city	9535	8495
Kunming City	9565	8525
Xi'an city	9340	8345
Xining City	9320	8380

                                                                

Note: 1. The prices in the table include consumption tax, value-added tax, urban construction tax and additional education fees.

2. The prices of gasoline and diesel oil in the table are in line with the compulsory national standards of VIA and Ⅵ in the sixth stage.

3. The sixth stage standard of gasoline and diesel is gasoline and No. 0 vehicle diesel respectively.

4. The prices of gasoline and diesel oil that meet the quality standards of the sixth stage for the national reserve and the Xinjiang production and Construction Corps are 8625 yuan and 7605 yuan per ton respectively, and other relevant oil price policies shall be implemented in accordance with the provisions of the measures for Oil Price Management.