Methanol: Futures rose slightly after falling, spot prices increased within a narrow range

On July 10, the methanol market price index was 2025.99, up 20.61 from the previous working day and 1.03% higher than the previous working day.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on July 7:

China CFR 245250 USD / ton, Ping

European FOB 193195 euros / ton, down 0.50 euros / ton

Us FOB 70-72 cents per gallon, down 2 cents per gallon

Southeast Asian CFR 290-292 US dollars / ton, up 2 US dollars / ton.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 1980-2010 (40), South: 1860 (0), North: 1800-1850 (0), Lunan: 2200 (80), Henan: 2090-2110 (50), Shanxi: 1950-2050 (20), Port: 21252160 (- 30)

Freight:

North Route-Northern Shandong 210-320 (0ax 0), Southern Route-Northern Shandong 260-330 (0ax 0), Shanxi-Northern Shandong 120-170 (- 10max 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 180-240 (0max 0)

Spot market: today, the methanol market price is high, and the price fluctuation is wide. 10-60 yuan / ton, the futures market rebounded after falling, the port spot demand was bought and sold, the buying and repairing of gas was slightly general, the equipment in the Chinese market was restarted and overhauled alternately, the mentality of the operators was slightly cautious, and the prices in some areas were firm due to tight supply. The overall trading atmosphere in the market is general. Specifically, the market prices in the main producing areas are stable, including 1860 yuan / ton for the south line and 1800-1850 yuan / ton for the north line, maintaining the previous working day. At present, there is a restart and maintenance of the equipment in the field, and more rigid demand is maintained downstream, and the operator's mentality is more wait-and-see. In the later stage, we also need to pay attention to the operation of the plant in the field. The market price in Guanzhong region has been raised, and today's market quotation revolves around 1980-2010 yuan / ton, with a low-end increase of 40 yuan / ton. at present, the supply in the field is reduced, and the quotations of some enterprises are firm. Among them, Shaanxi Changqing methanol is quoted this week: 2030 yuan / ton for 2000 tons and 2040 yuan / ton for more than 2000 tons. The 600000-ton methanol plant in the plant is expected to be stopped for maintenance today and is expected to last about 15-20 days. The market price of consumer land has been raised, including 2200 yuan / ton in southern Shandong, 80 yuan / ton in the low end, 2100 yuan / ton in northern Shandong and 20 yuan / ton in the low end. At present, the operators in the market wait and see and receive goods cautiously. The market price in North China has been partially raised. Today, the market price in Shanxi region revolves around 1950-2050 yuan / ton, the low end is raised by 20 yuan / ton, and the price in Hebei region is quoted at 2050-2100 yuan / ton. The low end is stable, mainly in the early week. The market price in southwest China is stable, and the quotation of Yunnan and Guizhou is around 2130-2200 yuan / ton, Sichuan and Chongqing 2100-2210 yuan / ton, the low end is stable, at present, the negotiations are mediocre, the transaction is average, and the terminal rigid demand is purchased.

Port market: today, methanol futures volatility is strong. Spot rigid demand buying and selling; paper goods unilateral part of high shipments, arbitrage quotation-based, buy the right price to follow up, the basis is slightly stronger. At the end of the day, the base difference continued to catch up. The overall deal is OK. Taicang main port transaction price: spot transaction: 2125-2165, base difference 09-8 prime color 13 position 7-deal: 2130-2165, base difference 09: 0X: 7 deal: 2145-2185, basis difference 09: 10pm: 15X: 8: 2150-2185, base difference 09: 18Universe 25Tracy: 2175-2190, basis difference: 090030.

Future forecast: cost: coal prices have stabilized recently, cost-end support has temporarily stabilized, entering the peak summer stage, seasonal factors affect the increase in coal demand for power plants, but the coal supply is more adequate, and coal prices remain stable as a whole. Short-term coal prices are expected to be sorted out in a narrow range. On the supply side: recently, the start-up of methanol market has declined slightly, and the supply has shrunk slightly, but methanol plants such as Ningxia Kunpeng, Boyuan, Anhui carbon Xin and Shanxi Yaxin have plans to restart recently, and the supply side is expected to increase. Demand: MTO profits pick up slightly, but the range is limited, the profit performance of traditional downstream enterprises is still poor, the overall start-up of downstream enterprises still does not change much, and it is difficult to improve significantly in the short term, under the off-season of traditional consumption, the downstream market demand performance is weak. At present, the macro and cost support is temporarily stable, the difference between supply and demand of methanol is slightly reduced, the mentality of operators is still cautious, they hold a wait-and-see mood for the future, and it is expected that the short-term methanol market price may be arranged in a narrow range. In the later stage, we should also pay attention to the prices of crude oil and coal and the operation of the plant in the field.