Methanol: Futures market fluctuates and falls back. Chinese market sentiment is poor

On July 5, the methanol market price index was 2007.05, up 14.96 from yesterday, up 0.75% from a month earlier.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on July 4:

China's CFR ranges from US $246 to US $252 per ton, down by US $1 per ton

European FOB 206208euros / ton, up 2.25euros / ton

Us FOB 72-74 cents per gallon, flat

CFR in Southeast Asia is US $289-291 / ton, flat.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 1940-1960 (0), South: 1860 (100), North: 1820-1870 (0), Lunan: 2100 (- 20), Henan: 2020-2055 (0), Shanxi: 1960-2050 (30), Port: 21602175 (0)

Freight:

North Route-North Shandong 190-280 (0ax 0), South Line-North Shandong 240-310 (0max 0), Shanxi-North Shandong 110-160 (0max 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 160-190 (0max 0)

Spot market: today, methanol market price range concussion, price volatility range 10-100 yuan / ton, the futures market fluctuates and falls, the spot rigid demand talks, the transaction is OK, the supply side of the Chinese market is still abundant, the improvement of the demand side is limited, the attitude of the operators in the market is pessimistic, and the transaction atmosphere is general. Specifically, the market prices in the main producing areas have been partially raised, with quotations for the central and southern routes around 1860 yuan / ton, the low end up to 100 yuan / ton, and the north line for 1820-1850 yuan / ton, and the low end is stable. at present, the regional performance in the market is different, and the market quotations rise and fall each other. the market atmosphere has weakened, rigid demand replenishment is the main, in the later stage, we also need to pay attention to the operation of the plant in the field. Guanzhong market prices remain stable, today's market quotation around 1940-1960 yuan / ton, the low end is stable, the market transaction atmosphere is general. Consumer market prices fell, of which southern Shandong quoted 2100 yuan / ton, low-end down 20 yuan / ton, northern Shandong quoted price 2070-2100 yuan / ton, low-end down 10 yuan / ton, the current market operators wait and see, receiving goods cautiously. The market price in North China has been raised by a narrow range. Today, the market price in Shanxi region revolves around 1960-2050 yuan / ton, with a low-end increase of 30 yuan / ton, while the price in Hebei region is quoted at 2050-2100 yuan / ton, and the low-end price is raised by 30 yuan / ton. The current market atmosphere is general, maintaining rigid demand. The market price in southwest China is narrowly reduced, with Yungui quotation around 2130-2200 yuan / ton, low-end price reduction of 10 yuan / ton, Sichuan-Chongqing price drop of 2100-2210 yuan / ton, and low-end reduction of 20 yuan / ton. at present, the market operators have a strong wait-and-see mood towards the future, and the transaction is average.

Port market: today, methanol futures fell back after consolidation. Rigid spot demand trading in the morning; long-term arbitrage and exchange negotiations are the main, unilateral part of bargain-hunting, the basis is stable; slightly stalemate in the afternoon. The overall deal was average. Taicang main port transaction price: spot transaction: 2125-2135, base difference 09: 07 deal: 2125-2135, base difference 09: 5, margin: 10: 7: 2135-2145, basis: 09: 15: 20: 8: 2145-2155, basis: 09: 17: 20.

Future forecast: coal prices have stabilized and rebounded recently, cost support has temporarily stabilized, some devices in southwest China have stopped one after another under the influence of high-temperature power restriction policy, and local supply has been reduced to support the sale of some operators in the field. However, large-scale equipment in the northwest region Jiutai new materials have been released as scheduled, and methanol plants such as Central Plains Dahua and Hebi Coal Chemical are scheduled to restart this week, coupled with the narrow accumulation of port inventory this week. The overall supply of the market is still abundant, and at a later stage, we need to pay attention to the implementation of the plant restart and the impact of the power restriction policy in the southwest on the plant. On the demand side, the traditional downstream demand is still not significantly improved, but the downstream olefin demand has increased. Shenhua Xinjiang 680000-ton olefin plant has been restarted, coupled with recent plans to restart some olefin units, and the overall demand is expected to increase. At present, the cost support is temporarily stable, both supply and demand are expected to increase, the attitude of operators is still cautious, hold a wait-and-see mood for the future, and it is expected that the short-term methanol market price may be arranged in a narrow range. In the later stage, we also need to pay attention to the price of crude oil and coal and the operation of the plant in the field.