Methanol: Futures market continues to float red Spot prices are mixed

On July 3rd, the market price index of methanol was 1991.99, which was 1.54 higher than that of the previous working day and 0.08% higher than the previous working day.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on June 30:

China CFR 246-252USD / ton, Ping

European FOB 203.75-205.75 euros / ton, down 3.25 euros / ton

Us FOB 72-74 cents per gallon, flat

Southeast Asia CFR 288.5-291.5 US dollars / ton, down 0.50 US dollars / ton.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 1980-2000 (20), South: 1760-1770 (0), North: 1850-1860 (0), Lunan: 2100 (0), Henan: 2030-2045 (20), Shanxi: 1940-2045 (- 20), Port: 21602175 (- 5)

Freight:

North Route-North Shandong 180-280 (0ax 0), South Line-North Shandong 240-310 (10max 0), Shanxi-North Shandong 120-160 (0ax 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 160-190 (10max 0)

Spot market: today, the price of methanol is mixed, and the price fluctuation range is 5-20. Yuan / ton, the futures market range is volatile, the basis is weak, the port spot is negotiated on demand, and the transaction is OK. The marginal improvement of supply and demand in the Chinese market is limited, the regional market performance is different, and the overall atmosphere is still general. Specifically, the market prices in the main producing areas have moved steadily. The quotations for the central and southern routes are around 1760-1770 yuan / ton, and the northern lines are quoted for 1850-1860 yuan / ton, maintaining the previous working day. At present, the resumption of production of some devices in the field has led to an increase in supply in some areas, and the transaction atmosphere is weak. In the later stage, we should also pay attention to the operation of the plant in the field. The market price in Guanzhong area has been raised, today's market quotation revolves around 1980-2000 yuan / ton, and the low end increases 20 yuan / ton, and the market transaction atmosphere is general. Among them, Shaanxi Changqing methanol this week raised 30 yuan / ton: 2000 tons quoted 2030 yuan / ton, more than 2000 tons less than 2040 yuan / ton, the plant 600000 tons of methanol plant is running normally. Consumer market prices are mixed, of which southern Shandong quoted 2100 yuan / ton, maintaining the previous working day, northern Shandong quoted price of 2080-2100 yuan / ton, the low end of the reduction of 20 yuan / ton, mainly wait-and-see at the beginning of the week, receiving goods carefully. The market price in North China has been partially reduced. The market price in Shanxi is quoted around 1940-1980 yuan / ton today, and the low-end price is reduced by 20 yuan / ton. Hebei price is quoted at 2020-2060 yuan / ton, which is stable at the low end. The current market atmosphere is general and rigid demand is maintained. Market prices in southwest China remain stable, with quotations of 2030-2120 yuan / ton for Yungui and 1970-2050 yuan / ton for Sichuan and Chongqing, maintaining the previous working day. At present, the mindset of operators in the market is more wait-and-see, the mood of shippers is high, and some of them pick up goods on demand.

Port market: methanol futures fluctuated widely today. Spot rigid demand negotiations, paper goods arbitrage mainly, some unilateral higher than low, the basis is weak, the long-term slightly stalemate; monthly replacement continues. The overall deal was average. Taicang main port transaction price: spot transaction: 2160-2170, basis 09: 0Universe 10, transaction 7: 2160-2175, basis 09: 5, market 10: 10, transaction 7: 2160-2175, basis 09: 10: 15, transaction 7: 2175-2190, basis 09: 2510: 8: 2175-2190, basis 09: 25.

In the future, it is predicted that coal prices have stabilized and rebounded in the near future, and cost support is temporarily stable, and with the increase in electricity demand for high temperature in the summer, short-term coal prices may continue to rise slightly. At present, there are both overhaul and restart of equipment in the field, and the overall supply has changed little. However, with the continuous resumption of production of large-scale plants such as Jiutai in the northwest region, local supply or increase, from the demand side, methanol olefin profits have been slightly repaired, but the range is limited. Although Luxi MTO plant resumes production, Xingxing new energy plant continues to shut down, and the capacity utilization rate of methanol to olefin decreases when other units do not change. In addition, the overall start-up of the traditional downstream has little change, and the overall downstream demand may tend to increase slowly. At present, the macro view and cost are good, both supply and demand are expected to increase, the attitude of operators is still cautious, hold a wait-and-see mood for the future, and methanol market prices are expected to rebound in a narrow range in the short term. in the later stage, we also need to pay attention to the prices of crude oil, coal and the operation of the plant in the field.